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Inference for probabilistic graphical models is still very much a practical challenge in large domains. The commonly used and effective belief propagation (BP) algorithm and its generalizations often do not converge when applied to hard,…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2012-07-02 Gal Elidan , Ian McGraw , Daphne Koller

The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-09-15 Sakshi Mishra , Praveen Palanisamy

Traffic forecasting has emerged as a core component of intelligent transportation systems. However, timely accurate traffic forecasting, especially long-term forecasting, still remains an open challenge due to the highly nonlinear and…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2021-03-30 Mingxing Xu , Wenrui Dai , Chunmiao Liu , Xing Gao , Weiyao Lin , Guo-Jun Qi , Hongkai Xiong

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-09-17 Peng Chen , Yingying Zhang , Yunyao Cheng , Yang Shu , Yihang Wang , Qingsong Wen , Bin Yang , Chenjuan Guo

The stable periodic patterns present in time series data serve as the foundation for conducting long-horizon forecasts. In this paper, we pioneer the exploration of explicitly modeling this periodicity to enhance the performance of models…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-16 Shengsheng Lin , Weiwei Lin , Xinyi Hu , Wentai Wu , Ruichao Mo , Haocheng Zhong

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2014-04-10 Victor Kurbatsky , Nikita Tomin , Vadim Spiryaev , Paul Leahy , Denis Sidorov , Alexei Zhukov

In the complex landscape of multivariate time series forecasting, achieving both accuracy and interpretability remains a significant challenge. This paper introduces the Fuzzy Transformer (Fuzzformer), a novel recurrent neural network…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-10-02 Miha Ožbot , Igor Škrjanc , Vitomir Štruc

In this paper, a joint design of instantaneous channel estimation, beam tracking, and adaptive beamformer construction for a massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) system is proposed. This design focuses on efficiency in terms of…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2023-03-02 Anil Kurt , Gokhan M. Guvensen

Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) are generative models which can learn useful representations from samples of a dataset in an unsupervised fashion. They have been widely employed as an unsupervised pre-training method in machine…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-09-13 Chris Häusler , Alex Susemihl , Martin P Nawrot , Manfred Opper

Accurate forecasting of passenger flows is critical for maintaining the efficiency and resilience of airport operations. Recent advances in patch-based Transformer models have shown strong potential in various time series forecasting tasks.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-16 Wenbo Du , Lingling Han , Ying Xiong , Ling Zhang , Biyue Li , Yisheng Lv , Tong Guo

Accurately forecasting daily exchange rate returns represents a longstanding challenge in international finance, as the exchange rate returns are driven by a multitude of correlated market factors and exhibit high-frequency fluctuations.…

计算金融 · 定量金融 2026-01-21 Dinggao Liu , Robert Ślepaczuk , Zhenpeng Tang

Multivariate long-term time series forecasting is of great application across many domains, such as energy consumption and weather forecasting. With the development of transformer-based methods, the performance of multivariate long-term…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-05-29 Zheng Sun , Yi Wei , Wenxiao Jia , Long Yu

In real-world reinforcement learning (RL) scenarios, agents often encounter partial observability, where incomplete or noisy information obscures the true state of the environment. Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-19 Ashok Arora , Neetesh Kumar

Traffic flow forecasting is considered a critical task in the field of intelligent transportation systems. In this paper, to address the issue of low accuracy in long-term forecasting of spatial-temporal big data on traffic flow, we propose…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-17 Baichao Long , Wang Zhu , Jianli Xiao

City-scale traffic volume prediction plays a pivotal role in intelligent transportation systems, yet remains a challenge due to the inherent incompleteness and bias in observational data. Although deep learning-based methods have shown…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-04 Shiyu Shen , Bin Pan , Guirong Xue

An elementary Recurrent Neural Network that operates on p time lags, called an RNN(p), is the natural generalisation of a linear autoregressive model ARX(p). It is a powerful forecasting tool for variables displaying inherent seasonal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-10 Roberto Baviera , Pietro Manzoni

Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-09-29 Bryan Lim , Sercan O. Arik , Nicolas Loeff , Tomas Pfister

Deep latent variable models have achieved significant empirical successes in model-based reinforcement learning (RL) due to their expressiveness in modeling complex transition dynamics. On the other hand, it remains unclear theoretically…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-08 Tongzheng Ren , Chenjun Xiao , Tianjun Zhang , Na Li , Zhaoran Wang , Sujay Sanghavi , Dale Schuurmans , Bo Dai

Accurate typhoon track forecasting is crucial for early system warning and disaster response. While Transformer-based models have demonstrated strong performance in modeling the temporal dynamics of dense trajectories of humans and vehicles…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-11-25 Lincan Li , Eren Erman Ozguven , Yue Zhao , Guang Wang , Yiqun Xie , Yushun Dong

Recently, the superiority of Transformer for long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) tasks has been challenged, particularly since recent work has shown that simple models can outperform numerous Transformer-based approaches. This suggests…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-10 Shengsheng Lin , Weiwei Lin , Wentai Wu , Songbo Wang , Yongxiang Wang