中文
相关论文

相关论文: A Unified Theory of Conditional Coverage in Confor…

200 篇论文

We develop conformal prediction methods for constructing valid predictive confidence sets in multiclass and multilabel problems without assumptions on the data generating distribution. A challenge here is that typical conformal prediction…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-07-14 Maxime Cauchois , Suyash Gupta , John Duchi

In statistical inference, confidence set procedures are typically evaluated based on their validity and width properties. Even when procedures achieve rate-optimal widths, confidence sets can still be excessively wide in practice due to…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-03-20 Kenta Takatsu

Uncertainty quantification is essential in decision-making, especially when joint distributions of random variables are involved. While conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with valid coverage guarantees, it…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-03 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool for constructing prediction intervals for black-box models, providing a finite sample coverage guarantee for exchangeable data. However, this exchangeability is compromised when some entries of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-09 Qian Peng , Yajie Bao , Haojie Ren , Zhaojun Wang , Changliang Zou

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free and model-agnostic uncertainty-quantification method that provides finite-sample prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage. In this work, for the first time, we apply conformal-prediction to…

核理论 · 物理学 2026-02-02 Habib Yousefi Dezdarani , Ryan Curry , Alexandros Gezerlis

Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-12 Minxing Zheng , Shixiang Zhu

Conformal prediction methodologies have significantly advanced the quantification of uncertainties in predictive models. Yet, the construction of confidence regions for model parameters presents a notable challenge, often necessitating…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-30 Charles Guille-Escuret , Eugene Ndiaye

Code language models are increasingly adopted for both understanding and generative tasks. Despite their success, these models frequently produce overconfident incorrect predictions and underconfident correct predictions, undermining their…

软件工程 · 计算机科学 2026-05-20 Ravishka Rathnasuriya , Wei Yang

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a widely used technique for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models. In its standard form, CP offers probabilistic guarantees on the coverage of the true label, but it is agnostic to sensitive…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-30 Anutam Srinivasan , Aditya T. Vadlamani , Amin Meghrazi , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal prediction provides distribution-free prediction sets with guaranteed marginal coverage. However, in split conformal prediction this guarantee is training-conditional only in expectation: across many calibration draws, the average…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-22 Petrus H. Zwart

Conformal prediction is a generic methodology for finite-sample valid distribution-free prediction. This technique has garnered a lot of attention in the literature partly because it can be applied with any machine learning algorithm that…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-12 Yachong Yang , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-24 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Claes Lundström

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-07 Gauthier Thurin , Kimia Nadjahi , Claire Boyer

Uncertainty quantification of causal effects is crucial for safety-critical applications such as personalized medicine. A powerful approach for this is conformal prediction, which has several practical benefits due to model-agnostic…

While split conformal prediction guarantees marginal coverage, approaching the stronger property of conditional coverage is essential for reliable uncertainty quantification. Naive conformal scores, however, suffer from poor conditional…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-08 Sacha Braun , Eugène Berta , Michael I. Jordan , Francis Bach

Conformal prediction is a popular, modern technique for providing valid predictive inference for arbitrary machine learning models. Its validity relies on the assumptions of exchangeability of the data, and symmetry of the given model…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-20 Rina Foygel Barber , Emmanuel J. Candes , Aaditya Ramdas , Ryan J. Tibshirani

The rapid proliferation of large language models and natural language processing (NLP) applications creates a crucial need for uncertainty quantification to mitigate risks such as hallucinations and to enhance decision-making reliability in…

As large language models are increasingly utilized in real-world applications, guarantees of task-specific metrics are essential for their reliable deployment. Previous studies have introduced various criteria of conformal uncertainty…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-07-01 Zhiyuan Wang , Qingni Wang , Yue Zhang , Tianlong Chen , Xiaofeng Zhu , Xiaoshuang Shi , Kaidi Xu

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free technique for establishing valid prediction intervals. Although conventionally people conduct conformal prediction in the output space, this is not the only possibility. In this paper, we propose…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-11 Jiaye Teng , Chuan Wen , Dinghuai Zhang , Yoshua Bengio , Yang Gao , Yang Yuan