相关论文: Post-ADC Inference: Valid Inference After Active D…

Algorithms for constraint-based causal discovery select graphical causal models among a space of possible candidates (e.g., all directed acyclic graphs) by executing a sequence of conditional independence tests. These may be used to inform…

The fundamental challenge of drawing causal inference is that counterfactual outcomes are not fully observed for any unit. Furthermore, in observational studies, treatment assignment is likely to be confounded. Many statistical methods have…

This paper develops a new approach to post-selection inference for screening high-dimensional predictors of survival outcomes. Post-selection inference for right-censored outcome data has been investigated in the literature, but much…

We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…

Predictive inference is a fundamental task in statistics, traditionally addressed using parametric assumptions about the data distribution and detailed analyses of how models learn from data. In recent years, conformal prediction has…

Active inference is a mathematical framework which originated in computational neuroscience as a theory of how the brain implements action, perception and learning. Recently, it has been shown to be a promising approach to the problems of…

We introduce the notion of heterogeneous calibration that applies a post-hoc model-agnostic transformation to model outputs for improving AUC performance on binary classification tasks. We consider overconfident models, whose performance is…

Adaptively collected data has become ubiquitous within modern practice. However, even seemingly benign adaptive sampling schemes can introduce severe biases, rendering traditional statistical inference tools inapplicable. This can be…

Discovering statistically significant patterns from databases is an important challenging problem. The main obstacle of this problem is in the difficulty of taking into account the selection bias, i.e., the bias arising from the fact that…

Credible microscopic traffic simulation requires car-following models that capture both the average response and the substantial variability observed across drivers and situations. However, most data-driven calibrations remain…

Post-hoc interpretability methods are critical tools to explain neural-network results. Several post-hoc methods have emerged in recent years, but when applied to a given task, they produce different results, raising the question of which…

In adversarial data collection (ADC), a human workforce interacts with a model in real time, attempting to produce examples that elicit incorrect predictions. Researchers hope that models trained on these more challenging datasets will rely…

Classical confidence intervals after best subset selection are widely implemented in statistical software and are routinely used to guide practitioners in scientific fields to conclude significance. However, there are increasing concerns in…

Bayesian inference promises to ground and improve the performance of deep neural networks. It promises to be robust to overfitting, to simplify the training procedure and the space of hyperparameters, and to provide a calibrated measure of…

Large-scale datasets are increasingly being used to inform decision making. While this effort aims to ground policy in real-world evidence, challenges have arisen as selection bias and other forms of distribution shifts often plague…

Combining multi-site data can strengthen and uncover trends, but is a task that is marred by the influence of site-specific covariates that can bias the data and therefore any downstream analyses. Post-hoc multi-site correction methods…

We show that, under a standard hardness assumption, there is no computationally efficient algorithm that given $n$ samples from an unknown distribution can give valid answers to $n^{3+o(1)}$ adaptively chosen statistical queries. A…

The deployment of pre-trained perception models in novel environments often leads to performance degradation due to distributional shifts. Although recent artificial intelligence approaches for metacognition use logical rules to…

We investigate the application of active inference in developing energy-efficient control agents for manufacturing systems. Active inference, rooted in neuroscience, provides a unified probabilistic framework integrating perception,…

In modern drug development, the broader availability of high-dimensional observational data provides opportunities for scientist to explore subgroup heterogeneity, especially when randomized clinical trials are unavailable due to cost and…