相关论文: Probabilities of Causation for Continuous Outcomes…

Causal inference on multiple non-independent outcomes raises serious challenges, because multivariate techniques that properly account for the outcome's dependence structure need to be considered. We focus on the case of binary outcomes…

Although randomization has long been used in distributed computing, formal methods for reasoning about probabilistic concurrent programs have lagged behind. No existing program logics can express specifications about the full distributions…

The problem of detecting anomalies in multiple processes is considered. We consider a composite hypothesis case, in which the measurements drawn when observing a process follow a common distribution with an unknown parameter (vector), whose…

While probabilistic models describe the dependence structure between observed variables, causal models go one step further: they predict, for example, how cognitive functions are affected by external interventions that perturb neuronal…

Studying the effects of one-way variation of any number of parameters on any number of output probabilities quickly becomes infeasible in practice, especially if various evidence profiles are to be taken into consideration. To provide for…

Statisticians have recently developed propensity score methods to improve generalizations from randomized experiments that do not employ random sampling. However, these methods typically rely on assumptions whose plausibility may be…

Since exact probabilistic inference is intractable in general for large multiply connected belief nets, approximate methods are required. A promising approach is to use heuristic search among hypotheses (instantiations of the network) to…

Partial identification approaches are a flexible and robust alternative to standard point-identification approaches in general instrumental variable models. However, this flexibility comes at the cost of a ``curse of cardinality'': the…

In the context of a binary treatment, matching is a well-established approach in causal inference. However, in the context of a continuous treatment or exposure, matching is still underdeveloped. We propose an innovative matching approach…

Doubly robust estimators of causal effects are a popular means of estimating causal effects. Such estimators combine an estimate of the conditional mean of the outcome given treatment and confounders (the so-called outcome regression) with…

Contextuality is usually defined as absence of a joint distribution for a set of measurements (random variables) with known joint distributions of some of its subsets. However, if these subsets of measurements are not disjoint,…

The goal of machine learning is to find models that minimize prediction error on data that has not yet been seen. Its operational paradigm assumes access to a dataset $S$ and articulates a scheme for evaluating how well a given model…

This paper develops upper and lower bounds for the probability of Boolean functions by treating multiple occurrences of variables as independent and assigning them new individual probabilities. We call this approach dissociation and give an…

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) approach to evaluate the causal effect of treatment in a randomized trial where a nonterminal event may be censored by a terminal event, but not vice versa (i.e., semi-competing risks). Based on the…

Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…

The concept of emergence is critically analyzed in particular with respect to the assumed emergence of mental properties from a neuronal basis. We argue that so-called contextual emergence is needed to avoid an eliminatory reductionism.…

We introduce OpportunityFinder, a code-less framework for performing a variety of causal inference studies with panel data for non-expert users. In its current state, OpportunityFinder only requires users to provide raw observational data…

We give the proof of a tight lower bound on the probability that a binomial random variable exceeds its expected value. The inequality plays an important role in a variety of contexts, including the analysis of relative deviation bounds in…

A common practice in evidence-based decision-making uses estimates of conditional probabilities P(y|x) obtained from research studies to predict outcomes y on the basis of observed covariates x. Given this information, decisions are then…

The standard definition formula for probabilities of independent events is derived as a consequence of the Insufficient Reason Principle expressed as the Maximum Relative Divergence Principle for grading (order-comonotonic) functions on a…