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Deploying trustworthy AI systems requires principled uncertainty quantification. Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used framework for constructing prediction sets with distribution-free coverage guarantees. In many practical settings,…

Amortized Bayesian inference (ABI) offers fast, scalable approximations to posterior densities by training neural surrogates on data simulated from the statistical model. However, ABI methods are highly sensitive to model misspecification:…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular technique for facilitating valid predictive inference across a spectrum of machine learning models, under minimal assumption of exchangeability. Recently, Hoff (2023) showed that full conformal…

Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) provides finite-sample coverage guarantees, enhancing the prediction reliability under non-exchangeability. This study demonstrates that these desirable properties of ACI do not require the use of…

Modern software-defined networks, such as Open Radio Access Network (O-RAN) systems, rely on artificial intelligence (AI)-powered applications running on controllers interfaced with the radio access network. To ensure that these AI…

Time series forecasting is crucial for applications like resource scheduling and risk management, where multi-step predictions provide a comprehensive view of future trends. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a mainstream approach for…

Safety-critical control of uncertain, adaptive systems often relies on conservative, worst-case uncertainty bounds that limit closed-loop performance. Online conformal prediction is a powerful data-driven method for quantifying uncertainty…

Conformal prediction is a powerful tool to generate uncertainty sets with guaranteed coverage using any predictive model, under the assumption that the training and test data are i.i.d.. Recently, it has been shown that adversarial examples…

Uncertainty is critical to reliable decision-making with machine learning. Conformal prediction (CP) handles uncertainty by predicting a set on a test input, hoping the set to cover the true label with at least $(1-\alpha)$ confidence. This…

Deep learning models for medical imaging often exhibit overconfidence, creating safety risks in ambiguous diagnostic scenarios. While Conformal Prediction (CP) provides distribution-free statistical guarantees, standard methods such as…

We discuss a concept denoted as Conformal Prediction (CP) in this paper. While initially stemming from the world of machine learning, it was never applied or analyzed in the context of short-term electricity price forecasting. Therefore, we…

To infer the parameters of mechanistic models with intractable likelihoods, techniques such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly being adopted. One of the main disadvantages of ABC in practical situations, however, is…

Ordinal classification has been widely applied in many high-stakes applications, e.g., medical imaging and diagnosis, where reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for decision making. Conformal prediction (CP) is a general UQ…

In this paper, we consider the problem of minimum-time optimal control for a dynamical system with initial state uncertainties and propose a sequential convex programming (SCP) solution framework. We seek to minimize the expected terminal…

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Trustworthy decision making in networked, dynamic environments calls for innovative uncertainty quantification substrates in predictive models for graph time series. Existing conformal prediction (CP) methods have been applied separately to…

The planted coloring problem is a prototypical inference problem for which thresholds for Bayes optimal algorithms, like Belief Propagation (BP), can be computed analytically. In this paper, we analyze the limits and performances of the…

We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…

Conformal prediction gives exact finite-sample coverage guarantees under exchangeability, but deployed systems are judged by more than coverage alone. For a fixed calibrated rule reused over a finite operational window, stakeholders also…

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) can reduce human suffering by predicting disastrous precipitation in time. A commonly-used NWP in the world is the European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts (EC). However, it is necessary to…