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Time series forecasting presents a significant challenge, particularly when its accuracy relies on external data sources rather than solely on historical values. This issue is prevalent in the financial sector, where the future behavior of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-22 Hajar Emami , Xuan-Hong Dang , Yousaf Shah , Petros Zerfos

Multivariate forecasting with Transformers faces a core scalability challenge: modeling cross-channel dependencies via attention compounds attention's quadratic sequence complexity with quadratic channel scaling, making full cross-channel…

In recent years, effectively modeling multivariate time series has gained significant popularity, mainly due to its wide range of applications, ranging from healthcare to financial markets and energy management. Transformers, MLPs, and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-04 Asal Meskin , Alireza Mirrokni , Ali Najar , Ali Behrouz

The quadratic computational complexity of MultiHead SelfAttention (MHSA) remains a fundamental bottleneck in scaling Large Language Models (LLMs) for longcontext tasks. While sparse and linearized attention mechanisms attempt to mitigate…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-12-19 Caner Erden

Time series forecasting is essential across diverse domains. While MLP-based methods have gained attention for achieving Transformer-comparable performance with fewer parameters and better robustness, they face critical limitations…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-14 Hu Zhang , Zhien Dai , Zhaohui Tang , Yongfang Xie

Improving the predictive accuracy of a dynamics model is crucial to obtaining good control performance and safety from Model Predictive Controllers (MPC). One approach involves learning unmodelled (residual) dynamics, in addition to nominal…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-11-19 Leroy D'Souza , Yash Vardhan Pant , Sebastian Fischmeister

Time series forecasting serves as an essential tool for many real-world applications, supporting tasks such as resource optimization and decision-making. Despite significant architectural advancements, most modern models still treat…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-12 Sheng Pan , Ming Jin , Bo Du , Shirui Pan

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales predictions for the geographical hierarchy formed by cities, states, and countries. The hierarchical time series (HTS)…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-10 Fan Zhou , Chen Pan , Lintao Ma , Yu Liu , Shiyu Wang , James Zhang , Xinxin Zhu , Xuanwei Hu , Yunhua Hu , Yangfei Zheng , Lei Lei , Yun Hu

In recent years, mining the knowledge from asynchronous sequences by Hawkes process is a subject worthy of continued attention, and Hawkes processes based on the neural network have gradually become the most hotly researched fields,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-30 Lu-ning Zhang , Jian-wei Liu , Zhi-yan Song , Xin Zuo

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) seeks to model temporal dynamics among variables to predict future trends. Transformer-based models and large language models (LLMs) have shown promise due to their ability to capture long-range…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-07 Abdul Monaf Chowdhury , Rabeya Akter , Safaeid Hossain Arib

Abstract. Most of the real world data we encounter are asynchronous event sequence, so the last decades have been characterized by the implementation of various point process into the field of social networks,electronic medical records and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-28 Zhi-yan Song , Jian-wei Liu , Lu-ning Zhang , Ya-nan Han

Data augmentation in time series forecasting plays a crucial role in enhancing model performance by introducing variability while maintaining the underlying temporal patterns. However, time series data offers fewer augmentation strategies…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-12 Dang Nha Nguyen , Hai Dang Nguyen , Khoa Tho Anh Nguyen

Transformer-based models have achieved remarkable success in multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) by capturing long-range dependencies. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by the quadratic computational complexity of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-12 Fanpu Cao , Shu Yang , Zhengjian Chen , Ye Liu , Laizhong Cui

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various fields such as finance, traffic management, energy, and healthcare. Recent studies have highlighted the advantages of channel independence to resist distribution drift but…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-19 Lu Han , Xu-Yang Chen , Han-Jia Ye , De-Chuan Zhan

Recent progress in neural forecasting accelerated improvements in the performance of large-scale forecasting systems. Yet, long-horizon forecasting remains a very difficult task. Two common challenges afflicting the task are the volatility…

We introduce a new model for multivariate probabilistic time series prediction, designed to flexibly address a range of tasks including forecasting, interpolation, and their combinations. Building on copula theory, we propose a simplified…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-26 Arjun Ashok , Étienne Marcotte , Valentina Zantedeschi , Nicolas Chapados , Alexandre Drouin

Multi-Head Attention (MHA) is the core computational primitive underlying modern Large Language Models (LLMs). However, MHA suffers from a fundamental linear scaling limitation: $H$ attention heads produce exactly $H$ independent attention…

Recent studies on long-term time series forecasting have shown that simple linear models and MLP-based predictors can achieve strong performance without increasingly complex architectures. However, many competitive baselines still rely on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-14 Zhenan Yu , Guangxin Jiang , Jin Yang

Efficiently optimizing multi-model inference pipelines for fast, accurate, and cost-effective inference is a crucial challenge in machine learning production systems, given their tight end-to-end latency requirements. To simplify the…

分布式、并行与集群计算 · 计算机科学 2024-05-28 Saeid Ghafouri , Kamran Razavi , Mehran Salmani , Alireza Sanaee , Tania Lorido-Botran , Lin Wang , Joseph Doyle , Pooyan Jamshidi

Time series forecasting is essential for many practical applications, with the adoption of transformer-based models on the rise due to their impressive performance in NLP and CV. Transformers' key feature, the attention mechanism,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-09 PeiSong Niu , Tian Zhou , Xue Wang , Liang Sun , Rong Jin