相关论文: Agentic Forecasting using Sequential Bayesian Upda…

With the development of artificial intelligence (AI), large language models (LLM) are widely used in many fields. However, the reasoning ability of LLM is still very limited when it comes to mathematical reasoning. Mathematics plays an…

Long range forecasts are the starting point of many decision support systems that need to draw inference from high-level aggregate patterns on forecasted values. State of the art time-series forecasting methods are either subject to concept…

Large language models (LLMs) offer unprecedented opportunities for analyzing social phenomena at scale. This paper demonstrates the value of LLMs in psychological measurement by (1) compiling the first large-scale dataset of election rumors…

Bayesian inference has many advantages in decision making of agents (e.g. robotics/simulative agent) over a regular data-driven black-box neural network: Data-efficiency, generalization, interpretability, and safety where these advantages…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed for clinical reasoning tasks, which inherently require eliciting calibrated probabilistic beliefs based on available evidence. However, real-world clinical data are frequently…

We propose a multi-agent framework for modeling artificial consciousness in large language models (LLMs), grounded in psychoanalytic theory. Our \textbf{Psychodynamic Model} simulates self-awareness, preconsciousness, and unconsciousness…

As language models accelerate scientific research by automating hypothesis generation and implementation, a new bottleneck emerges: evaluating and filtering hundreds of AI-generated ideas without exhaustive experimentation. We ask whether…

Can Large Language Models (LLMs) accurately predict election outcomes? While LLMs have demonstrated impressive performance in various domains, including healthcare, legal analysis, and creative tasks, their ability to forecast elections…

This paper introduces a multi-agent framework guided by Large Language Models (LLMs) to assist in the early stages of engineering design, a phase often characterized by vast parameter spaces and inherent uncertainty. Operating under a…

Speech monologues recorded in naturalistic settings provide opportunities to characterize mental illness phenomenology and detect symptom exacerbation. Large language models (LLMs) offer new possibilities for automating this process, as…

Most LLM benchmarks score how well a model responds to explicit requests. They leave unmeasured a different conversational ability: noticing and acting on needs the user has implied but not said. We call this \emph{conversational…

State-of-the-art neural network language models (NNLMs) represented by long short term memory recurrent neural networks (LSTM-RNNs) and Transformers are becoming highly complex. They are prone to overfitting and poor generalization when…

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strong symbolic and compositional reasoning, yet they struggle with time series question answering as the data is typically transformed into an LLM-compatible modality, e.g., serialized text, plotted…

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have spurred interest in deploying LLM agents to undertake tasks in the world. LLMs are often deployed in agent systems: code that orchestrates LLM calls and provides them with tools. We…

Large language models (LLMs) often achieve high performance in native language identification (NLI) benchmarks by leveraging superficial contextual clues such as names, locations, and cultural stereotypes, rather than the underlying…

Exhaustively evaluating many large language models (LLMs) on a large suite of benchmarks is expensive. We cast benchmarking as finite-population inference and, under a fixed query budget, seek tight confidence intervals (CIs) for model…

LLM-based agents are rapidly being adopted for scientific data analysis, automating tasks once limited by human time and expertise. This capability is often framed as an acceleration of discovery, but it also accelerates a familiar failure…

The advent of large language models (LLMs) has transformed information access and reasoning through open-ended natural language interaction. However, LLMs remain limited by static knowledge, factual hallucinations, and the inability to…

Time-series data is central to decision-making in financial markets, yet building high-performing, interpretable, and auditable models remains a major challenge. While Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) frameworks streamline model…

Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) is a principled approach for generalizing regularities from data and constructing hypotheses as interpretable logic programs. However, a key limitation is its reliance on expert-crafted language bias - the…