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Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-04-22 Ethan YoungIn Shin , Baris Kale , Michael F. Howland

Accurately quantifying the increased risks of climate extremes requires generating large ensembles of climate realization across a wide range of emissions scenarios, which is computationally challenging for conventional Earth System Models.…

计算物理 · 物理学 2025-08-22 Mengze Wang , Benedikt Barthel Sorensen , Themistoklis Sapsis

Most operational climate services providers base their seasonal predictions on initialised general circulation models (GCMs) or statistical techniques that fit past observations. GCMs require substantial computational resources, which…

Moist heatwaves and convective storms frequently co-occur, posing compound risks. Although historically concentrated in the tropics, these moist weather extremes are projected to intensify substantially towards the midlatitudes, with…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-04-07 Funing Li , Talia Tamarin-Brodsky

A stochastic inverse heat transfer problem is formulated to infer the transient heat flux, treated as an unknown Neumann boundary condition. Therefore, an Ensemble-based Simultaneous Input and State Filtering as a Data Assimilation…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-03-01 Kabir Bakhshaei , Umberto Emil Morelli , Giovanni Stabile , Gianluigi Rozza

Forecasting the state of vegetation in response to climate and weather events is a major challenge. Its implementation will prove crucial in predicting crop yield, forest damage, or more generally the impact on ecosystems services relevant…

Urban heat islands (UHIs) are often accentuated during heat waves (HWs) and pose a public health risk. Mitigating UHIs requires urban planners to first estimate how urban heat is influenced by different land use types (LUTs) and drivers…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-10-13 David Tschan , Zhi Wang , Dominik Strebel , Jan Carmeliet , Yongling Zhao

Like any fluid heated from below, the atmosphere is subject to vertical instability which triggers convection. Convection occurs on small time and space scales, which makes it a challenging feature to include in climate models. Usually…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2015-06-12 Corentin Herbert , Didier Paillard

Earth system models (ESMs) are the principal tools used in climate science to generate future climate projections under various atmospheric emissions scenarios on a global or regional scale. Generative deep learning approaches are suitable…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2024-04-16 Katie Christensen , Lyric Otto , Seth Bassetti , Claudia Tebaldi , Brian Hutchinson

A new model is presented for multisite statistical downscaling of temperature and precipitation using convolutional conditional neural processes (convCNPs). ConvCNPs are a recently developed class of models that allow deep learning…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-21 Anna Vaughan , Will Tebbutt , J. Scott Hosking , Richard E. Turner

Precipitation remains one of the most challenging climate variables to observe and predict accurately. Existing datasets face intricate trade-offs: gauge observations are relatively trustworthy but sparse, satellites provide global coverage…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-06-24 Sencan Sun , Congyi Nai , Baoxiang Pan , Wentao Li , Lu Li , Xin Li , Efi Foufoula-Georgiou , Yanluan Lin

Inferring the properties of exoplanets from their atmospheres, while confronting low resolution and low signal-to-noise in the context of the quantities we want to derive, poses rigorous demands upon the data collected from observation.…

地球与行星天体物理 · 物理学 2022-07-27 Theresa Fisher , Hyunju Kim , Camerian Millsaps , Michael Line , Sara Imari Walker

Prompted by the relevant problem of temperature inversion (i.e. gradient of density anti-correlated to the gradient of temperature) in astrophysics, we introduce a novel method to model a gravitationally confined multi-component…

等离子体物理 · 物理学 2024-11-20 Luca Barbieri , Emanuele Papini , Pierfrancesco Di Cintio , Simone Landi , Andrea Verdini , Lapo Casetti

While diffusion models have shown great success in image generation, their noise-inverting generative process does not explicitly consider the structure of images, such as their inherent multi-scale nature. Inspired by diffusion models and…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-04-14 Severi Rissanen , Markus Heinonen , Arno Solin

The nonlinear synergy between global warming and urbanization is amplifying extreme climate risks in cities worldwide. While observations and simulations confirm these compounding effects, two fundamental bottlenecks impede predictive…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-05-04 Qiuxia Wu , Yaqiang Wang , Huabing Ke

Dynamical downscaling with high-resolution regional climate models may offer the possibility of realistically reproducing precipitation and weather events in climate simulations. As resolutions fall to order kilometers, the use of explicit…

应用统计 · 统计学 2018-08-01 Won Chang , Jiali Wang , Julian Marohnic , Rao Kotamarthi , Elisabeth J. Moyer

Deep neural networks have been applied successfully to a wide variety of inverse problems arising in computational imaging. These networks are typically trained using a forward model that describes the measurement process to be inverted,…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2021-04-14 Davis Gilton , Gregory Ongie , Rebecca Willett

Urban heat islands (UHIs) pose a critical challenge in densely populated cities and tropical climates where large amounts of energy are used to meet the cooling demand. To address this, Building and Construction Authority (BCA) of Singapore…

Current time-series forecasting problems use short-term weather attributes as exogenous inputs. However, in specific time-series forecasting solutions (e.g., demand prediction in the supply chain), seasonal climate predictions are crucial…

Heatwaves are an important problem in cities, and climate change makes this problem more difficult. In this paper, we present a GPU-based deep learning framework for next-day prediction of urban thermal conditions and for heat risk…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-19 Adis Alihodžić