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Transformer-based models have greatly pushed the boundaries of time series forecasting recently. Existing methods typically encode time series data into $\textit{patches}$ using one or a fixed set of patch lengths. This, however, could…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-09 Linfeng Du , Ji Xin , Alex Labach , Saba Zuberi , Maksims Volkovs , Rahul G. Krishnan

In the past few years, time series foundation models have achieved superior predicting accuracy. However, real-world time series often exhibit significant diversity in their temporal patterns across different time spans and domains, making…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-19 Aobo Liang , Yan Sun , Xiaohou Shi , Ke Li

The Transformer architecture has significantly advanced deep learning, particularly in natural language processing, by effectively managing long-range dependencies. However, as the demand for understanding complex relationships grows,…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-06-18 Qian Chen , Wen Wang , Qinglin Zhang , Siqi Zheng , Shiliang Zhang , Chong Deng , Hai Yu , Jiaqing Liu , Yukun Ma , Chong Zhang

Multivariate time series forecasting requires simultaneously modeling temporal patterns and cross-variate dependencies. Channel-independent methods such as PatchTST excel at temporal modeling but ignore variable correlations, while pure…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-24 Yuhang Wang

We present a new approach to automatic amortized inference in universal probabilistic programs which improves performance compared to current methods. Our approach is a variation of inference compilation (IC) which leverages deep neural…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-10-29 William Harvey , Andreas Munk , Atılım Güneş Baydin , Alexander Bergholm , Frank Wood

Transformers have shown great power in time series forecasting due to their global-range modeling ability. However, their performance can degenerate terribly on non-stationary real-world data in which the joint distribution changes over…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-27 Yong Liu , Haixu Wu , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various real-world applications. Significant efforts have been made to integrate advanced network architectures and training strategies that enhance the capture of temporal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-31 Zhiding Liu , Jiqian Yang , Qingyang Mao , Yuze Zhao , Mingyue Cheng , Zhi Li , Qi Liu , Enhong Chen

Transformer-based models have recently become dominant in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), yet the variations in their architecture, such as encoder-only, encoder-decoder, and decoder-only designs, raise a crucial question: What…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-18 Lefei Shen , Mouxiang Chen , Han Fu , Xiaoxue Ren , Xiaoyun Joy Wang , Jianling Sun , Zhuo Li , Chenghao Liu

Real-world multichannel time series prediction faces growing demands for efficiency across edge and cloud environments, making channel compression a timely and essential problem. Motivated by the success of Multiple-Input Multiple-Output…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-30 Ziqi Liu , Pei Zeng , Yi Ding

Time series forecasting has attracted significant attention in recent decades. Previous studies have demonstrated that the Channel-Independent (CI) strategy improves forecasting performance by treating different channels individually, while…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-07 Jialin Chen , Jan Eric Lenssen , Aosong Feng , Weihua Hu , Matthias Fey , Leandros Tassiulas , Jure Leskovec , Rex Ying

Meta-forecasting is a newly emerging field which combines meta-learning and time series forecasting. The goal of meta-forecasting is to train over a collection of source time series and generalize to new time series one-at-a-time. Previous…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-07 Mike Van Ness , Huibin Shen , Hao Wang , Xiaoyong Jin , Danielle C. Maddix , Karthick Gopalswamy

In multivariable time series (MTS) forecasting, existing state-of-the-art deep learning approaches tend to focus on autoregressive formulations and often overlook the potential of using exogenous variables in enhancing the prediction of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-03 Yuxuan Shu , Vasileios Lampos

Most existing Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) use channel independent modeling and focus on capturing and generalizing temporal dependencies, while neglecting the correlations among channels or overlooking the different aspects of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-24 Hanyin Cheng , Xingjian Wu , Yang Shu , Zhongwen Rao , Lujia Pan , Bin Yang , Chenjuan Guo

The design choices in the Transformer attention mechanism, including weak inductive bias and quadratic computational complexity, have limited its application for modeling long sequences. In this paper, we introduce Mega, a simple,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-31 Xuezhe Ma , Chunting Zhou , Xiang Kong , Junxian He , Liangke Gui , Graham Neubig , Jonathan May , Luke Zettlemoyer

Transformer-based models have shown strong performance in time-series forecasting by leveraging self-attention to model long-range temporal dependencies. However, their effectiveness depends critically on the quality and structure of input…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-11 Saurish Nagrath , Saroj Kumar Panigrahy

Time series forecasting requires balancing short-term and long-term dependencies for accurate predictions. Existing methods mainly focus on long-term dependency modeling, neglecting the complexities of short-term dynamics, which may hinder…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-29 Sijia Peng , Yun Xiong , Yangyong Zhu , Zhiqiang Shen

Although transformer-based methods have achieved great success in multi-scale temporal pattern interaction modeling, two key challenges limit their further development: (1) Individual time points contain less semantic information, and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-01 Zongjiang Shang , Ling Chen , Binqing wu , Dongliang Cui

While generative modeling on time series facilitates more capable and flexible probabilistic forecasting, existing generative time series models do not address the multi-dimensional properties of time series data well. The prevalent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-09 Haoran Zhang , Haixuan Liu , Yong Liu , Yunzhong Qiu , Yuxuan Wang , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have achieved remarkable success through large-scale pretraining. However, their design primarily targets real-valued series, limiting their ability to handle general forecasting tasks involving diverse…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-25 Lu Han , Yu Liu , Lan Li , Qiwen Deng , Jian Jiang , Yinbo Sun , Zhe Yu , Binfeng Wang , Xingyu Lu , Lintao Ma , Han-Jia Ye , De-Chuan Zhan

Tabular data inherently exhibits significant feature heterogeneity, but existing transformer-based methods lack specialized mechanisms to handle this property. To bridge the gap, we propose MAYA, an encoder-decoder transformer-based…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-23 Xuechen Li , Yupeng Li , Jian Liu , Xiaolin Jin , Xin Hu