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Language Models (LMs) have shown promising performance in natural language generation. However, as LMs often generate incorrect or hallucinated responses, it is crucial to correctly quantify their uncertainty in responding to given inputs.…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-09-17 Xinmeng Huang , Shuo Li , Mengxin Yu , Matteo Sesia , Hamed Hassani , Insup Lee , Osbert Bastani , Edgar Dobriban

While large language models (LLMs) are proficient at question-answering (QA), it is not always clear how (or even if) an answer follows from their latent "beliefs". This lack of interpretability is a growing impediment to widespread use of…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-10-31 Nora Kassner , Oyvind Tafjord , Ashish Sabharwal , Kyle Richardson , Hinrich Schuetze , Peter Clark

Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-04-03 Luka Hobor , Mario Brcic , Mihael Kovac , Kristijan Poje

Language models (LMs) have exhibited exceptional versatility in reasoning and in-depth financial analysis through their proprietary information processing capabilities. Previous research focused on evaluating classification performance…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-03-21 Han Yuan , Li Zhang , Zheng Ma

To enhance Large Language Models' (LLMs) reliability, calibration is essential -- the model's assessed confidence scores should align with the actual likelihood of its responses being correct. However, current confidence elicitation methods…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-10-29 Yukun Huang , Yixin Liu , Raghuveer Thirukovalluru , Arman Cohan , Bhuwan Dhingra

The relationship between communicated language and intended meaning is often probabilistic and sensitive to context. Numerous strategies attempt to estimate such a mapping, often leveraging recursive Bayesian models of communication. In…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-05-03 Benjamin Lipkin , Lionel Wong , Gabriel Grand , Joshua B Tenenbaum

Large language models (LLMs) have shown high agreement with human raters across a variety of tasks, demonstrating potential to ease the challenges of human data collection. In computational social science (CSS), researchers are increasingly…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-02-11 Kristina Gligorić , Tijana Zrnic , Cinoo Lee , Emmanuel J. Candès , Dan Jurafsky

As Large Language Models become integral to decision-making, optimism about their power is tempered with concern over their errors. Users may over-rely on LLM advice that is confidently stated but wrong, or under-rely due to mistrust.…

人机交互 · 计算机科学 2025-10-30 Jessica Y. Bo , Sophia Wan , Ashton Anderson

The rise of large language models (LLMs) and their tight integration into our daily life make it essential to dedicate efforts towards their trustworthiness. Uncertainty quantification for LLMs can establish more human trust into their…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-05-06 Daniel Yang , Yao-Hung Hubert Tsai , Makoto Yamada

Large language models (LLMs) are revolutionizing every aspect of society. They are increasingly used in problem-solving tasks to substitute human assessment and reasoning. LLMs are trained on what humans write and are thus exposed to human…

软件工程 · 计算机科学 2025-10-14 Fengfei Sun , Ningke Li , Kailong Wang , Lorenz Goette

Large language models (LLMs) have been found to produce hallucinations when the question exceeds their internal knowledge boundaries. A reliable model should have a clear perception of its knowledge boundaries, providing correct answers…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-08-20 Shiyu Ni , Keping Bi , Lulu Yu , Jiafeng Guo

Instruction-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at many tasks and will even explain their reasoning, so-called self-explanations. However, convincing and wrong self-explanations can lead to unsupported confidence in LLMs, thus…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-05-20 Andreas Madsen , Sarath Chandar , Siva Reddy

Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong results on a range of applications, including regression and scoring tasks. Typically, one obtains outputs from an LLM via autoregressive sampling from the model's output distribution. We show…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-11-04 Michal Lukasik , Harikrishna Narasimhan , Aditya Krishna Menon , Felix Yu , Sanjiv Kumar

Multiple Choice Question (MCQ) tests are among the most used methods for evaluating large language models (LLMs). Besides checking the correctness of the selected answer, evaluations often consider the model's confidence through the…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-05-05 Tairan Fu , Javier Conde , Gonzalo Martínez , María Grandury , Pedro Reviriego

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes domains, accurately assessing their confidence is crucial. Humans typically express confidence through epistemic markers (e.g., "fairly confident") instead of numerical…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-04-14 Jiayu Liu , Qing Zong , Weiqi Wang , Yangqiu Song

Large Language Models (LLMs) tend to be unreliable in the factuality of their answers. To address this problem, NLP researchers have proposed a range of techniques to estimate LLM's confidence over facts. However, due to the lack of a…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-11-28 Matéo Mahaut , Laura Aina , Paula Czarnowska , Momchil Hardalov , Thomas Müller , Lluís Màrquez

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for factual question-answering, it becomes more important for LLMs to have the capability to communicate the likelihood that their answer is correct. For these verbalized expressions of…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-12-15 Sophia Hager , David Mueller , Kevin Duh , Nicholas Andrews

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of generating plausible explanations of how they arrived at an answer to a question. However, these explanations can misrepresent the model's "reasoning" process, i.e., they can be unfaithful. This,…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-05-21 Katie Matton , Robert Osazuwa Ness , John Guttag , Emre Kıcıman

Recently, overconfidence in large language models (LLMs) has garnered considerable attention due to its fundamental importance in quantifying the trustworthiness of LLM generation. However, existing approaches prompt the \textit{black box…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-04-29 Adil Bahaj , Hamed Rahimi , Mohamed Chetouani , Mounir Ghogho

The conformity effect describes the tendency of individuals to align their responses with the majority. Studying this bias in large language models (LLMs) is crucial, as LLMs are increasingly used in various information-seeking and…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-05-27 Xiaochen Zhu , Caiqi Zhang , Tom Stafford , Nigel Collier , Andreas Vlachos