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Causal discovery from time series is a fundamental task in machine learning. However, its widespread adoption is hindered by a reliance on untestable causal assumptions and by the lack of robustness-oriented evaluation in existing…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-01 Huiyang Yi , Xiaojian Shen , Yonggang Wu , Duxin Chen , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

Nonlinear causal discovery from observational data imposes strict identifiability assumptions on the formulation of structural equations utilized in the data generating process. The evaluation of structure learning methods under assumption…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-12-17 Georg Velev , Stefan Lessmann

Many benchmarks for automated causal inference evaluate a system's performance based on a single numerical output, such as an Average Treatment Effect (ATE). This approach conflates two distinct steps in causal analysis: identification -…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-05-15 Ayush Sawarni , Jiyuan Tan , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Going beyond correlations, the understanding and identification of causal relationships in observational time series, an important subfield of Causal Discovery, poses a major challenge. The lack of access to a well-defined ground truth for…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-04-19 Andrew R. Lawrence , Marcus Kaiser , Rui Sampaio , Maksim Sipos

Causal Discovery (CD) is a powerful framework for scientific inquiry. Yet, its practical adoption is hindered by a reliance on strong, often unverifiable assumptions and a lack of robust performance assessment. To address these limitations…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-06 Gideon Stein , Niklas Penzel , Tristan Piater , Joachim Denzler

This paper studies causal discovery in irregularly sampled time series-a key challenge in risk-sensitive domains like finance, healthcare, and climate science, where missing data and inconsistent sampling frequencies distort causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-12 Weihong Li , Baohong Li , Anpeng Wu , Zhihan Li , Ming Ma , Keting Yin , Kun Kuang

Constraint-based methods and noise-based methods are two distinct families of methods proposed for uncovering causal graphs from observational data. However, both operate under strong assumptions that may be challenging to validate or could…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-05-01 Daria Bystrova , Charles K. Assaad , Julyan Arbel , Emilie Devijver , Eric Gaussier , Wilfried Thuiller

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical…

Causal modeling has long been an attractive topic for many researchers and in recent decades there has seen a surge in theoretical development and discovery algorithms. Generally discovery algorithms can be divided into two approaches:…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-02-06 Ridho Rahmadi , Perry Groot , Marianne Heins , Hans Knoop , Tom Heskes

Inferring the effect of interventions within complex systems is a fundamental problem of statistics. A widely studied approach employs structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-14 David Strieder , Mathias Drton

Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system. We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). These models require independent residual…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-08-18 Jonas Peters , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Schölkopf

Data fusion techniques integrate information from heterogeneous data sources to improve learning, generalization, and decision making across data sciences. In causal inference, these methods leverage rich observational data to improve…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-02 Quinn Lanners , Cynthia Rudin , Alexander Volfovsky , Harsh Parikh

The goal of Causal Discovery is to find automated search methods for learning causal structures from observational data. In some cases all variables of the interested causal mechanism are measured, and the task is to predict the effects one…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-01-11 Shuyan Wang

This paper clarifies a fundamental difference between causal inference and traditional statistical inference by formalizing a mathematical distinction between their respective parameters. We connect two major approaches to causal inference,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-29 Muye Liu , Jun Xie

Constraint-based causal discovery is brittle in finite-sample regimes because erroneous conditional-independence (CI) decisions can cascade into substantial structural errors. We propose Quantitative Argumentation for Causal Discovery…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-04-28 Sheng Wei , Yulin Chen , Beishui Liao

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-03-15 David Strieder , Tobias Freidling , Stefan Haffner , Mathias Drton

Causal discovery methods aim to determine the causal direction between variables using observational data. Functional causal discovery methods, such as those based on the Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model (LiNGAM), rely on structural and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-27 Shreya Prakash , Fan Xia , Elena Erosheva

Causal inference is a science with multi-disciplinary evolution and applications. On the one hand, it measures effects of treatments in observational data based on experimental designs and rigorous statistical inference to draw causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-05 Jingying Zeng , Run Wang

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-02-10 Liuyi Yao , Zhixuan Chu , Sheng Li , Yaliang Li , Jing Gao , Aidong Zhang

Learning causal graphs from multivariate time series is a ubiquitous challenge in all application domains dealing with time-dependent systems, such as in Earth sciences, biology, or engineering, to name a few. Recent developments for this…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-02 Kevin Debeire , Jakob Runge , Andreas Gerhardus , Veronika Eyring
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