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Recursive partitioning approaches producing tree-like models are a long standing staple of predictive modeling, in the last decade mostly as ``sub-learners'' within state of the art ensemble methods like Boosting and Random Forest. However,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-12-14 Amichai Painsky , Saharon Rosset

Cross-validation is a common method for estimating the predictive performance of machine learning models. In a data-scarce regime, where one typically wishes to maximize the number of instances used for training the model, an approach…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-25 George I. Austin , Itsik Pe'er , Tal Korem

Recently, new methods for model assessment, based on subsampling and posterior approximations, have been proposed for scaling leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) to large datasets. Although these methods work well for estimating predictive…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-08-12 Måns Magnusson , Michael Riis Andersen , Johan Jonasson , Aki Vehtari

The paper considers the problem of out-of-sample risk estimation under the high dimensional settings where standard techniques such as $K$-fold cross validation suffer from large biases. Motivated by the low bias of the leave-one-out cross…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-02-12 Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Arian Maleki

Cross-validation can be used to measure a model's predictive accuracy for the purpose of model comparison, averaging, or selection. Standard leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) requires that the observation model can be factorized into…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-06-21 Paul-Christian Bürkner , Jonah Gabry , Aki Vehtari

Despite a large and significant body of recent work focused on estimating the out-of-sample risk of regularized models in the high dimensional regime, a theoretical understanding of this problem for non-differentiable penalties such as…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-02-15 Haolin Zou , Arnab Auddy , Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Arian Maleki

Action Unit (AU) detection aims at automatically caracterizing facial expressions with the muscular activations they involve. Its main interest is to provide a low-level face representation that can be used to assist higher level affective…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-03-07 Gauthier Tallec , Arnaud Dapogny , Kevin Bailly

Model inference, such as model comparison, model checking, and model selection, is an important part of model development. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) is a general approach for assessing the generalizability of a model, but…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-08-12 Måns Magnusson , Michael Riis Andersen , Johan Jonasson , Aki Vehtari

Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO) and the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) are methods for estimating pointwise out-of-sample prediction accuracy from a fitted Bayesian model using the log-likelihood evaluated at the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-12-18 Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman , Jonah Gabry

We present a weighted version of Leave-One-Out (LOO) cross-validation for estimating the Integrated Squared Error (ISE) when approximating an unknown function by a predictor that depends linearly on evaluations of the function over a finite…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-27 Luc Pronzato , Maria-João Rendas

Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is a popular method for estimating out-of-sample predictive accuracy. However, computing LOO-CV criteria can be computationally expensive due to the need to fit the model multiple times. In the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-09-28 Luca Silva , Giacomo Zanella

Leave-one-out (LOO) prediction provides a principled, data-dependent measure of generalization, yet guarantees in fully transductive settings remain poorly understood beyond specialized models. We introduce Median of Level-Set Aggregation…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-03 Jian Qian , Jiachen Xu

We generalize fast Gaussian process leave-one-out formulae to multiple-fold cross-validation, highlighting in turn the covariance structure of cross-validation residuals in both Simple and Universal Kriging frameworks. We illustrate how…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-06 David Ginsbourger , Cedric Schärer

We analyze the performance of cross-validation (CV) in the density estimation framework with two purposes: (i) risk estimation and (ii) model selection. The main focus is given to the so-called leave-$p$-out CV procedure (Lpo), where $p$…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-10-02 Alain Celisse

In recent decades, multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) has surged in popularity for population inference. However, the validity of the estimates can depend on details of the model, and there is currently little research on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-09-07 Swen Kuh , Lauren Kennedy , Qixuan Chen , Andrew Gelman

With machine learning being a popular topic in current computational materials science literature, creating representations for compounds has become common place. These representations are rarely compared, as evaluating their performance -…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-05-26 Samantha Durdy , Michael Gaultois , Vladimir Gusev , Danushka Bollegala , Matthew J. Rosseinsky

Studies have proven that domain bias and label bias exist in different Facial Expression Recognition (FER) datasets, making it hard to improve the performance of a specific dataset by adding other datasets. For the FER bias issue, recent…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2022-11-15 Shuyi Mao , Xinpeng Li , Qingyang Wu , Xiaojiang Peng

For a large class of regularized models, leave-one-out cross-validation can be efficiently estimated with an approximate leave-one-out formula (ALO). We consider the problem of adjusting hyperparameters so as to optimize ALO. We derive…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-11-23 Ryan Burn

The out-of-sample error (OO) is the main quantity of interest in risk estimation and model selection. Leave-one-out cross validation (LO) offers a (nearly) distribution-free yet computationally demanding approach to estimate OO. Recent…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-10-27 Arnab Auddy , Haolin Zou , Kamiar Rahnama Rad , Arian Maleki

Leave-one-problem-out (LOPO) performance prediction requires machine learning (ML) models to extrapolate algorithms' performance from a set of training problems to a previously unseen problem. LOPO is a very challenging task even for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-06-01 Ana Nikolikj , Michal Pluháček , Carola Doerr , Peter Korošec , Tome Eftimov
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