相关论文: Amortized Inference for Correlated Discrete Choice…

This paper explores learning emulators for parameter estimation with uncertainty estimation of high-dimensional dynamical systems. We assume access to a computationally complex simulator that inputs a candidate parameter and outputs a…

Variational Autoencoders are powerful models for unsupervised learning. However deep models with several layers of dependent stochastic variables are difficult to train which limits the improvements obtained using these highly expressive…

In recent years, deep learning techniques have shown great success in various tasks related to inverse problems, where a target quantity of interest can only be observed through indirect measurements by a forward operator. Common approaches…

We consider a distributed estimation method in a setting with heterogeneous streams of correlated data distributed across nodes in a network. In the considered approach, linear models are estimated locally (i.e., with only local data)…

Although with progress in introducing auxiliary amortized inference models, learning discrete latent variable models is still challenging. In this paper, we show that the annoying difficulty of obtaining reliable stochastic gradients for…

Latent Gaussian models have a rich history in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from factor analysis to compressed sensing to time series analysis. The classical method for maximizing the likelihood of these models…

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

Recent advances, such as RegretNet, ALGnet, RegretFormer and CITransNet, use deep learning to approximate optimal multi item auctions by relaxing incentive compatibility (IC) and measuring its violation via ex post regret. However, the true…

Neural networks have shown significant potential in solving partial differential equations (PDEs). While deep networks are capable of approximating complex functions, direct one-shot training often faces limitations in both accuracy and…

While deep neural networks provide good performance for a range of challenging tasks, calibration and uncertainty estimation remain major challenges, especially under distribution shift. In this paper, we propose the amortized conditional…

In this work we consider the task of constructing prediction intervals in an inductive batch setting. We present a discriminative learning framework which optimizes the expected error rate under a budget constraint on the interval sizes.…

This study evaluates deep neural networks for forecasting probability distributions of financial returns. 1D convolutional neural networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures are used to forecast parameters of three…

All discretized numerical models contain modelling errors - this reality is amplified when reduced-order models are used. The ability to accurately approximate modelling errors informs statistics on model confidence and improves…

Neural posterior estimation has emerged as a powerful tool for amortized inference, with growing adoption across scientific and applied domains. In many of these applications, the conditioning variable is a set of observations whose…

We propose generalized additive partial linear models for complex data which allow one to capture nonlinear patterns of some covariates, in the presence of linear components. The proposed method improves estimation efficiency and increases…

This paper discusses capabilities that are essential to models applied in policy analysis settings and the limitations of direct applications of off-the-shelf machine learning methodologies to such settings. Traditional econometric…

This paper introduces an algorithm-agnostic approach to feature-based time series clustering via amortized neural inference. By training neural networks to approximate the optimal partitioning rule from simulated data, the proposed…

When optimizing over-parameterized models, such as deep neural networks, a large set of parameters can achieve zero training error. In such cases, the choice of the optimization algorithm and its respective hyper-parameters introduces…

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or…

Optimization models used to make discrete decisions often contain uncertain parameters that are context-dependent and estimated through prediction. To account for the quality of the decision made based on the prediction, decision-focused…