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Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-07 Gauthier Thurin , Kimia Nadjahi , Claire Boyer

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that replaces point predictions with sets, offering marginal coverage guarantees (i.e., ensuring that the prediction sets contain the true label with a…

Precise estimation of predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks is a critical requirement for reliable decision-making in machine learning and statistical modeling, particularly in the context of medical AI. Conformal Prediction (CP)…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-05 Hamed Karimi , Reza Samavi

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Modern deep learning based classifiers show very high accuracy on test data but this does not provide sufficient guarantees for safe deployment, especially in high-stake AI applications such as medical diagnosis. Usually, predictions are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-05-09 David Stutz , Krishnamurthy , Dvijotham , Ali Taylan Cemgil , Arnaud Doucet

Conformal prediction (CP) can convert any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with any user-specified probability. However, same as the model itself, CP is vulnerable to adversarial test examples…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-15 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Sampling-based methods, e.g., Deep Ensembles and Bayesian Neural Nets have become promising approaches to improve the quality of uncertainty estimation and robust generalization. However, they suffer from a large model size and high latency…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-29 Ha Manh Bui , Anqi Liu

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-14 Coby Penso , Jacob Goldberger , Ethan Fetaya

We introduce a framework for robust uncertainty quantification in situations where labeled training data are corrupted, through noisy or missing labels. We build on conformal prediction, a statistical tool for generating prediction sets…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-27 Shai Feldman , Stephen Bates , Yaniv Romano

Conformal prediction (CP) for regression can be challenging, especially when the output distribution is heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed. Some of the issues can be addressed by estimating a distribution over the output, but in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-15 Etash Guha , Shlok Natarajan , Thomas Möllenhoff , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Eugene Ndiaye

Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-01 Subhankar Ghosh , Yuanjie Shi , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Jana Doppa , Brian Jones

Conformal prediction (CP), a distribution-free uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework, reliably provides valid predictive inference for black-box models. CP constructs prediction sets that contain the true output with a specified…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-12 Xiaofan Zhou , Baiting Chen , Yu Gui , Lu Cheng

Normalization is a vital process for any machine learning task as it controls the properties of data and affects model performance at large. The impact of particular forms of normalization, however, has so far been investigated in limited…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-06-22 Chintan Trivedi , Konstantinos Makantasis , Antonios Liapis , Georgios N. Yannakakis

We introduce a method based on Conformal Prediction (CP) to quantify the uncertainty of full ranking algorithms. We focus on a specific scenario where $n+m$ items are to be ranked by some ``black box'' algorithm. It is assumed that the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-04 Jean-Baptiste Fermanian , Pierre Humbert , Gilles Blanchard

Surrogate models (including deep neural networks and other machine learning algorithms in supervised learning) are capable of approximating arbitrarily complex, high-dimensional input-output problems in science and engineering, but require…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-17 Miguel Sánchez-Domínguez , Lucas Lacasa , Javier de Vicente , Gonzalo Rubio , Eusebio Valero

Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-02-07 Michal Klein , Louis Bethune , Eugene Ndiaye , Marco Cuturi

While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-13 Ozgur Guldogan , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Michael Berger

Conformal prediction is widely adopted in uncertainty quantification, due to its post-hoc, distribution-free, and model-agnostic properties. In the realm of modern deep learning, researchers have proposed Feature Conformal Prediction (FCP),…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-03 Zihao Tang , Boyuan Wang , Chuan Wen , Jiaye Teng

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-23 Javier Abad , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller , Giovanni Cherubin

Non-parametric machine learning models, such as random forests and gradient boosted trees, are frequently used to estimate house prices due to their predictive accuracy, but a main drawback of such methods is their limited ability to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-01-31 Anders Hjort , Gudmund Horn Hermansen , Johan Pensar , Jonathan P. Williams