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Neural network classifiers trained with cross-entropy loss achieve strong predictive accuracy but lack the capability to provide inherent predictive uncertainty estimates, thus requiring external techniques to obtain these estimates. In…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-04-08 Courtney Franzen , Farhad Pourkamali-Anaraki

Deep learning models have gained increasing adoption in medical image analysis. However, these models often produce overconfident predictions, which can compromise clinical accuracy and reliability. Bridging the gap between high-performance…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-03-24 Jutika Borah , Hidam Kumarjit Singh

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

Modern convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are known to be overconfident in terms of their calibration on unseen input data. That is to say, they are more confident than they are accurate. This is undesirable if the probabilities predicted…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-12-03 Guoxuan Xia , Sangwon Ha , Tiago Azevedo , Partha Maji

While local explanations for AI models can offer insights into individual predictions, such as feature importance, they are plagued by issues like instability. The unreliability of feature weights, often skewed due to poorly calibrated ML…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-01-09 Helena Lofstrom , Tuwe Lofstrom , Ulf Johansson , Cecilia Sonstrod

Mixup~\cite{zhang2017mixup} is a recently proposed method for training deep neural networks where additional samples are generated during training by convexly combining random pairs of images and their associated labels. While simple to…

Underlying the use of statistical approaches for a wide range of applications is the assumption that the probabilities obtained from a statistical model are representative of the "true" probability that event, or outcome, will occur.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-15 Xixin Wu , Mark Gales

Calibrated probabilistic classifiers are models whose predicted probabilities can directly be interpreted as uncertainty estimates. It has been shown recently that deep neural networks are poorly calibrated and tend to output overconfident…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-10-17 Teodora Popordanoska , Raphael Sayer , Matthew B. Blaschko

Process capability indices such as $C_{pk}$ are widely used for manufacturing decisions, yet are typically applied via deterministic thresholding of finite-sample estimates, ignoring uncertainty and leading to unstable outcomes near the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Fei Jiang , Lei Yang

Deep learning has been shown to be highly effective for automatic modulation classification (AMC), which is a pivotal technology for next-generation cognitive communications. Yet, existing deep learning methods for AMC often lack robust…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2025-12-03 Huian Yang , Rajeev Sahay

Despite extensive research on neural network calibration, existing methods typically apply global transformations that treat all predictions uniformly, overlooking the heterogeneous reliability of individual predictions. Furthermore, the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-22 Hassan Gharoun , Mohammad Sadegh Khorshidi , Kasra Ranjbarigderi , Fang Chen , Amir H. Gandomi

The study of machine learning-based logical query answering enables reasoning with large-scale and incomplete knowledge graphs. This paper advances this area of research by addressing the uncertainty inherent in knowledge. While the…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-05-21 Weizhi Fei , Zihao Wang , Hang Yin , Yang Duan , Yangqiu Song

Pre-trained deep image representations are useful for post-training tasks such as classification through transfer learning, image retrieval, and object detection. Data augmentations are a crucial aspect of pre-training robust…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-02-23 Sangnie Bhardwaj , Willie McClinton , Tongzhou Wang , Guillaume Lajoie , Chen Sun , Phillip Isola , Dilip Krishnan

Multimodal learning aims to enhance perceptual and decision-making capabilities by integrating information from diverse sources. However, classical deep learning approaches face a critical trade-off between the high accuracy of black-box…

量子物理 · 物理学 2026-01-14 Yu Wu , Qianli Zhou , Jie Geng , Xinyang Deng , Wen Jiang

Although deep neural networks (DNNs) achieve high predictive accuracy, their confidence estimates are often unreliable, potentially compromising user trust in their decisions. This has motivated research on calibrated models, where…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-25 Ramya Hebbalaguppe , Ajay Shastry , Soumya Suvra Ghosal , Chetan Arora

Cognitive diagnosis models have been widely used in different areas, especially intelligent education, to measure users' proficiency levels on knowledge concepts, based on which users can get personalized instructions. As the measurement is…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2024-03-25 Fei Wang , Qi Liu , Enhong Chen , Chuanren Liu , Zhenya Huang , Jinze Wu , Shijin Wang

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2017-08-04 Chuan Guo , Geoff Pleiss , Yu Sun , Kilian Q. Weinberger

Deep Learning methods are known to suffer from calibration issues: they typically produce over-confident estimates. These problems are exacerbated in the low data regime. Although the calibration of probabilistic models is well studied,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-11-30 Rahul Rahaman , Alexandre H. Thiery

Scientific Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications require models that deliver trustworthy uncertainty estimates while respecting domain constraints. Existing uncertainty quantification methods lack mechanisms to incorporate symbolic…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-21 Shahnawaz Alam , Mohammed Mudassir Uddin , Mohammed Kaif Pasha

Simulating complex physical systems is crucial for understanding and predicting phenomena across diverse fields, such as fluid dynamics and heat transfer, as well as plasma physics and structural mechanics. Traditional approaches rely on…