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Conformal prediction (CP) is a method for constructing a prediction interval around the output of a fitted model, whose validity does not rely on the model being correct--the CP interval offers a coverage guarantee that is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-17 Aabesh Bhattacharyya , Rina Foygel Barber

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Reliable confidence measures of metrics derived from medical imaging reconstruction pipelines would improve the standard of decision-making in many clinical workflows. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a robust framework for producing…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

While counterfactual fairness of point predictors is well studied, its extension to prediction sets--central to fair decision-making under uncertainty--remains underexplored. On the other hand, conformal prediction (CP) provides efficient,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-13 Ozgur Guldogan , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Michael Berger

Conformal prediction is a technique for constructing prediction intervals that attain valid coverage in finite samples, without making distributional assumptions. Despite this appeal, existing conformal methods can be unnecessarily…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-05-09 Yaniv Romano , Evan Patterson , Emmanuel J. Candès

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-24 Chen Xu , Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

The safe integration of machine learning modules in decision-making processes hinges on their ability to quantify uncertainty. A popular technique to achieve this goal is conformal prediction (CP), which transforms an arbitrary base…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-23 Matteo Zecchin , Sangwoo Park , Osvaldo Simeone , Fredrik Hellström

Uncertainty quantification has received considerable interest in recent works in Machine Learning. In particular, Conformal Prediction (CP) gains ground in this field. For the case of time series, Online Conformal Prediction (OCP) becomes…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-03 Théo Dupuy , Binbin Xu , Stéphane Perrey , Jacky Montmain , Abdelhak Imoussaten

Conformal prediction builds marginally valid prediction intervals that cover the unknown outcome of a randomly drawn test point with a prescribed probability. However, in practice, data-driven methods are often used to identify specific…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-21 Ying Jin , Zhimei Ren

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine learning (ML) is transforming healthcare, but safe clinical decisions demand reliable uncertainty estimates that standard ML models fail to provide. Conformal prediction (CP) is a popular tool that allows users to turn heuristic…

Conformal prediction is a non-parametric technique for constructing prediction intervals or sets from arbitrary predictive models under the assumption that the data is exchangeable. It is popular as it comes with theoretical guarantees on…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-01 Jase Clarkson , Wenkai Xu , Mihai Cucuringu , Yvik Swan , Gesine Reinert

Conformal prediction (CP) provides distribution-free, finite-sample coverage guarantees but critically relies on exchangeability, a condition often violated under distribution shift. We study the robustness of split conformal prediction…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-23 Xunlei Qian , Yue Xing

Conformal prediction, a post-hoc, distribution-free, finite-sample method of uncertainty quantification that offers formal coverage guarantees under the assumption of data exchangeability. Unfortunately, the resulting uncertainty regions…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-21 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

Conformal prediction (CP) is a wrapper around traditional machine learning models, giving coverage guarantees under the sole assumption of exchangeability; in classification problems, for a chosen significance level $\varepsilon$, CP…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-02-23 Javier Abad , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller , Giovanni Cherubin

Signal Temporal Logic (STL) inference seeks to extract human-interpretable rules from time-series data, but existing methods lack formal confidence guarantees for the inferred rules. Conformal prediction (CP) is a technique that can provide…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-23 Danyang Li , Yixuan Wang , Matthew Cleaveland , Mingyu Cai , Roberto Tron

When one observes a sequence of variables $(x_1, y_1), \ldots, (x_n, y_n)$, Conformal Prediction (CP) is a methodology that allows to estimate a confidence set for $y_{n+1}$ given $x_{n+1}$ by merely assuming that the distribution of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye
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