相关论文: Probabilities

This chapter provides a tutorial overview of first principles methods to describe the properties of matter at the ground state or equilibrium. It begins with a brief introduction to quantum and statistical mechanics for predicting the…

Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the so-called Bayesian…

As physics searches for invariants in observations, this paper looks for invariants of probabilistic observation without assuming physical structure. Structure emerges from the basic assumption of science that new information shall lead to…

The traditional calculus-based introduction to statistical inference consists of a semester of probability followed by a semester of frequentist inference. Cobb (2015) challenges the statistical education community to rethink the…

Given a universe of discourse X-a domain of possible outcomes-an experiment may consist of selecting one of its elements, subject to the operation of chance, or of observing the elements, subject to imprecision. A priori uncertainty about…

We consider a conception of reality that is the following: An object is 'real' if we know that if we would try to test whether this object is present, this test would give us the answer 'yes' with certainty. If we consider a conception of…

Theoretically as well as experimentally it is investigated how people represent their knowledge in order to make decisions or to share their knowledge with others. Experiment 1 probes into the ways how people 6ather information about the…

This is the second volume of a textbook for a two-semester course in mathematical analysis. This second volume is about analysis of multi-variable functions. The topics covered include Euclidean spaces, convergence of sequences, open sets…

This is an introduction to measure theory, integration and function spaces, with all the needed preliminaries included, and with some applications included as well. We first discuss some basic motivations, coming from discrete probability,…

In this paper the elicitation of probabilities from human experts is considered as a measurement process, which may be disturbed by random 'measurement noise'. Using Bayesian concepts a second order probability distribution is derived…

Probability-like parameters appearing in some statistical models, and their prior distributions, are reinterpreted through the notion of `circumstance', a term which stands for any piece of knowledge that is useful in assigning a…

This thesis details a class of partial orders on the space of probability distributions and the space of density operators which capture the idea of information content. Some links to domain theory and computational linguistics are also…

General relativity has a Hamiltonian formulation, which formally provides a canonical (Liouville) measure on the space of solutions. In ordinary statistical physics, the Liouville measure is used to compute probabilities of macrostates, and…

Communicating forecast uncertainty effectively is a persistent challenge in predictive endeavours such as weather forecasting. This paper explores the application of possibility theory as a complementary approach to traditional probability…

The purpose of this paper is to give a selective survey on recent progress in random metric theory and its applications to conditional risk measures. This paper includes eight sections. Section 1 is a longer introduction, which gives a…

A distinction is sometimes made between "statistical" and "subjective" probabilities. This is based on a distinction between "unique" events and "repeatable" events. We argue that this distinction is untenable, since all events are "unique"…

This is the logical foundation for for Relativity Theory, Probability Theory, and for Quantum Theory. Contents is the following: 1 Introduction. 2 Classical logic. 3 Time and space. 3.1 Recorders. 3.2 Time. 3.3 Space. 3.4 Relativity. 4.…

The problem of assigning probabilities when little is known is analized in the case where the quanities of interest are physical observables, i.e. can be measured and their values expressed by numbers. It is pointed out that the assignment…

Lecture notes (in French) of a master 2 level course in applied mathematics. Contents: Part I. Markov chains on a countable space. 1. Examples 2. Summary of basic properties. 3. Spectral theory and speed of convergence. 4. Lyapunov…

We give a probabilistic analysis of inductive knowledge and belief and explore its predictions concerning knowledge about the future, about laws of nature, and about the values of inexactly measured quantities. The analysis combines a…