相关论文: The Curious Case of Aid and Conflict: Causal Evide…
Global and regional integration has grown significantly in recent decades, boosting intra-African trade and positively impacting national economies through trade diversification and sustainable development. However, existing measures of…
In this paper, I empirically investigate how the openness of political institutions to diverse representation can impact conflict-related violence. By exploiting plausibly exogenous variations in the number of councillors in Colombian…
International trade has been in the forefront of economic development and growth debates. Trade openness, its definition, scope, and impacts have also been studied numerously. Tariff has been dubbed as negative influencer of economic growth…
The risk of conflict is exasperated by a multitude of internal and external factors. Current multivariate analysis paints diverse causal risk profiles that vary with time. However, these profiles evolve and a universal model to understand…
Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and…
Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public…
The regression discontinuity (RD) design offers identification of causal effects under weak assumptions, earning it a position as a standard method in modern political science research. But identification does not necessarily imply that…
Poverty is a multifaceted phenomenon linked to the lack of capabilities of households to earn a sustainable livelihood, increasingly being assessed using multidimensional indicators. Its spatial pattern depends on social, economic,…
This paper explores the interplay between transfer policies, R\&D, corruption, and economic development using a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents and a government. The government collects taxes, redistributes fiscal…
The goal of this research is to uncover the channels through which research and development (R&D) impacts economic growth in developing countries. The study employed nine variables from three broader categories in the World Economic Forum…
In this paper the correlation between education, research and macroeconomic strength of countries at a global scale is analyzed on the basis of statistical data published by the UNIDO and OECD. It uses sets of composite indicators…
This paper introduces a new event-based measure of bilateral geopolitical alignment and provides evidence that it shapes economic growth. The measure is built from 373,020 geopolitical events across 193 countries over 1960--2024, compiled…
This study reevaluates the traditional understanding of the "political resource curse" by examining the unique impact of energy transition metals, specifically cobalt, on local-level conflicts in Africa. Contrary to previous studies that…
Does it matter whether a government is "left wing" or "right wing" for economic growth? Using a panel of 113 countries (1995 2022), we combine: (i) the economic ideology of the executive branch (V Dem), (ii) the disaggregated institutional…
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations provide a blueprint of a better future by 'leaving no one behind', and, to achieve the SDGs by 2030, poor countries require immense volumes of development aid. In this paper, we…
This paper studies regression discontinuity designs (RDD) when linear-in-means spillovers occur between units that are close in their running variable. We show that the RDD estimand depends on the ratio of two terms: (1) the radius over…
In this paper, we analyze the long-term distributive impact of climate change through rising food prices. We use a standard incomplete markets model and account for non-linear Engel curves for food consumption. For the calibration of our…
This paper explores the spatial and temporal diffusion of political violence in North and West Africa. It does so by endeavoring to represent the mental landscape that lives in the back of a group leader's mind as he contemplates strategic…
Modern armed conflicts have a tendency to cluster together and spread geographically. However, the geography of most conflicts remains under-studied. To fill this gap, this article presents a new indicator that measures two key geographical…
Monitoring tools for anticipatory action are increasingly gaining traction to improve the efficiency and timeliness of humanitarian responses. Whilst predictive models can now forecast conflicts with high accuracy, translating these…