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In many scientific applications, uncertainty of estimates from an earlier (upstream) analysis needs to be propagated in subsequent (downstream) Bayesian analysis, without feedback. Cutting feedback methods, also termed cut-Bayes, achieve…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-28 Jiafang Song , Sandipan Pramanik , Abhirup Datta

Since state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation methods are often computationally demanding, we investigate whether incorporating prior information can improve uncertainty estimates in conventional deep neural networks. Our focus is on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-21 Fabian Denoodt , José Oramas

Uncertainty computation in deep learning is essential to design robust and reliable systems. Variational inference (VI) is a promising approach for such computation, but requires more effort to implement and execute compared to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-08-03 Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan , Didrik Nielsen , Voot Tangkaratt , Wu Lin , Yarin Gal , Akash Srivastava

The main computational challenge in Bayesian inference is to compute integrals against a high-dimensional posterior distribution. In the past decades, variational inference (VI) has emerged as a tractable approximation to these integrals,…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-01-09 Anya Katsevich , Philippe Rigollet

This paper describes an approach to simultaneously identify clusters and estimate cluster-specific regression parameters from the given data. Such an approach can be useful in learning the relationship between input and output when the…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2024-01-02 Udai Nagpal , Krishan Nagpal

While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in general visual understanding, they frequently falter in fine-grained perception tasks that require identifying tiny objects or discerning subtle…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2026-04-15 Jilong Zhu , Yang Feng

Bayesian analyses combine information represented by different terms in a joint Bayesian model. When one or more of the terms is misspecified, it can be helpful to restrict the use of information from suspect model components to modify…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-06-27 Xuejun Yu , David J. Nott , Michael Stanley Smith

Variational Inference (VI) offers a method for approximating intractable likelihoods. In neural VI, inference of approximate posteriors is commonly done using an encoder. Alternatively, encoderless VI offers a framework for learning…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-18 Amir Zadeh , Santiago Benoit , Louis-Philippe Morency

Geoscientists use observed data to estimate properties of the Earth's interior. This often requires non-linear inverse problems to be solved and uncertainties to be estimated. Bayesian inference solves inverse problems under a probabilistic…

地球物理 · 物理学 2024-01-01 Xuebin Zhao , Andrew Curtis

Variational inference (VI) combined with data subsampling enables approximate posterior inference over large data sets, but suffers from poor local optima. We first formulate a deterministic annealing approach for the generic class of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2016-05-31 Stephan Mandt , James McInerney , Farhan Abrol , Rajesh Ranganath , David Blei

In this paper, we visualize and quantify the predictive uncertainty of gradient-based post hoc visual explanations for neural networks. Predictive uncertainty refers to the variability in the network predictions under perturbations to the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-04 Mohit Prabhushankar , Ghassan AlRegib

The motivations for using variational inference (VI) in neural networks differ significantly from those in latent variable models. This has a counter-intuitive consequence; more expressive variational approximations can provide…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-01-22 Brian Trippe , Richard Turner

Bayesian inference provides an attractive online-learning framework to analyze sequential data, and offers generalization guarantees which hold even with model mismatch and adversaries. Unfortunately, exact Bayesian inference is rarely…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-08-03 Badr-Eddine Chérief-Abdellatif , Pierre Alquier , Mohammad Emtiyaz Khan

The abundance of modern health data provides many opportunities for the use of machine learning techniques to build better statistical models to improve clinical decision making. Predicting time-to-event distributions, also known as…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-12-15 Zidi Xiu , Chenyang Tao , Benjamin A. Goldstein , Ricardo Henao

We consider the optimal value of information (VoI) problem, where the goal is to sequentially select a set of tests with a minimal cost, so that one can efficiently make the best decision based on the observed outcomes. Existing algorithms…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2017-07-18 Yuxin Chen , Jean-Michel Renders , Morteza Haghir Chehreghani , Andreas Krause

Variational inference (VI) is a popular approach in Bayesian inference, that looks for the best approximation of the posterior distribution within a parametric family, minimizing a loss that is typically the (reverse) Kullback-Leibler (KL)…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-18 Marguerite Petit-Talamon , Marc Lambert , Anna Korba

Variational inference is an umbrella term for algorithms which cast Bayesian inference as optimization. Classically, variational inference uses the Kullback-Leibler divergence to define the optimization. Though this divergence has been…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-03-16 Rajesh Ranganath , Jaan Altosaar , Dustin Tran , David M. Blei

Obtaining reliable and accurate quantification of uncertainty estimates from deep neural networks is important in safety-critical applications. A well-calibrated model should be accurate when it is certain about its prediction and indicate…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-12-16 Ranganath Krishnan , Omesh Tickoo

In a probabilistic latent variable model, factorized (or mean-field) variational inference (F-VI) fits a separate parametric distribution for each latent variable. Amortized variational inference (A-VI) instead learns a common inference…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-27 Charles C. Margossian , David M. Blei

We develop unbiased implicit variational inference (UIVI), a method that expands the applicability of variational inference by defining an expressive variational family. UIVI considers an implicit variational distribution obtained in a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-02-07 Michalis K. Titsias , Francisco J. R. Ruiz