相关论文: Adaptive Conformal Prediction via Bayesian Uncerta…

Quantifying uncertainty in clinical predictions is critical for high-stakes diagnosis tasks. Conformal prediction offers a principled approach by providing prediction sets with theoretical coverage guarantees. However, in practice, patient…

We propose Bayesian Conformal Prediction (BCP), a framework that combines Bayesian posterior predictive distributions with PAC-style conformal risk control to produce prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Standard…

Modern epidemiological analytics increasingly use machine learning models that offer strong prediction but often lack calibrated uncertainty. Bayesian methods provide principled uncertainty quantification, yet are viewed as difficult to…

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

Survival models are used in various fields, such as the development of cancer treatment protocols. Although many statistical and machine learning models have been proposed to achieve accurate survival predictions, little attention has been…

Deep learning models are being adopted and applied on various critical decision-making tasks, yet they are trained to provide point predictions without providing degrees of confidence. The trustworthiness of deep learning models can be…

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample…

Data-driven surrogate models offer quick approximations to complex numerical and experimental systems but typically lack uncertainty quantification, limiting their reliability in safety-critical applications. While Bayesian methods provide…

In recent years, neural networks have revolutionized various domains, yet challenges such as hyperparameter tuning and overfitting remain significant hurdles. Bayesian neural networks offer a framework to address these challenges by…

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Despite recent progress in predicting biomarker trajectories from real clinical data, uncertainty in the predictions poses high-stakes risks (e.g., misdiagnosis) that limit their clinical deployment. To enable safe and reliable use of such…

In critical decision support systems based on medical imaging, the reliability of AI-assisted decision-making is as relevant as predictive accuracy. Although deep learning models have demonstrated significant accuracy, they frequently…

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular technique for facilitating valid predictive inference across a spectrum of machine learning models, under minimal assumption of exchangeability. Recently, Hoff (2023) showed that full conformal…

Conformal prediction constructs a set of labels instead of a single point prediction, while providing a probabilistic coverage guarantee. Beyond the coverage guarantee, adaptiveness to example difficulty is an important property. It means…

While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease…

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…