相关论文: Causal Inference in Energy Demand Prediction

Reliable demand forecasts are critical for the effective supply chain management. Several endogenous and exogenous variables can influence the dynamics of demand, and hence a single statistical model that only consists of historical sales…

Software engineering increasingly involves making high-stakes decisions under uncertainty, using signals from code, field data, and socio-technical processes. Recent AI-driven support (e.g., anomaly detection, predictive analytics, AIOps,…

Large amounts of training data are one of the major reasons for the high performance of state-of-the-art NLP models. But what exactly in the training data causes a model to make a certain prediction? We seek to answer this question by…

Causal knowledge is vital for effective reasoning in science, as causal relations, unlike correlations, allow one to reason about the outcomes of interventions. Algorithms that can discover causal relations from observational data are based…

Understanding and forecasting precipitation events in the Arctic maritime environments, such as Bear Island and Ny-{\AA}lesund, is crucial for assessing climate risk and developing early warning systems in vulnerable marine regions. This…

We introduce a novel forecasting model for crop yields that explicitly accounts for spatio-temporal dependence and the influence of extreme weather and climatic events. Our approach combines Bayesian Structural Time Series for modeling…

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

Causal inference has gained much popularity in recent years, with interests ranging from academic, to industrial, to educational, and all in between. Concurrently, the study and usage of neural networks has also grown profoundly (albeit at…

Inferring the effect of interventions within complex systems is a fundamental problem of statistics. A widely studied approach employs structural causal models that postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables.…

Determining and measuring cause-effect relationships is fundamental to most scientific studies of natural phenomena. The notion of causation is distinctly different from correlation which only looks at association of trends or patterns in…

There is abundant observational data in the software engineering domain, whereas running large-scale controlled experiments is often practically impossible. Thus, most empirical studies can only report statistical correlations -- instead of…

In many scientific disciplines, coarse-grained causal models are used to explain and predict the dynamics of more fine-grained systems. Naturally, such models require appropriate macrovariables. Automated procedures to detect suitable…

A methodology for high dimensional causal inference in a time series context is introduced. It is assumed that there is a monotonic transformation of the data such that the dynamics of the transformed variables are described by a Gaussian…

Predicting the future is an important component of decision making. In most situations, however, there is not enough information to make accurate predictions. In this paper, we develop a theory of causal reasoning for predictive inference…

Structural causal models describe how the components of a robotic system interact. They provide both structural and functional information about the relationships that are present in the system. The structural information outlines the…

Recommender systems are important and powerful tools for various personalized services. Traditionally, these systems use data mining and machine learning techniques to make recommendations based on correlations found in the data. However,…

Choices based on observational data depend on beliefs about which correlations reflect causality. An agent predicts the consequence of available actions using a dataset and her subjective beliefs about causality represented by a directed…

This paper presents a novel data-driven technique based on the spatiotemporal pattern network (STPN) for energy/power prediction for complex dynamical systems. Built on symbolic dynamic filtering, the STPN framework is used to capture not…

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Understanding climate change requires reasoning over complex causal networks. Yet, existing causal discovery datasets predominantly capture explicit, direct causal relations. We introduce ClimateCause, a manually expert-annotated dataset of…