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This paper presents $\textbf{CAPS}$ (Clock-weighted Aggregation with Prefix-products and Softmax), a structured attention mechanism for time series forecasting that decouples three distinct temporal structures: global trends, local shocks,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-04 Viresh Pati , Yubin Kim , Vinh Pham , Jevon Twitty , Shihao Yang , Jiecheng Lu

Precipitation nowcasting predicts future radar sequences based on current observations, which is a highly challenging task driven by the inherent complexity of the Earth system. Accurate nowcasting is of utmost importance for addressing…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-10-10 Yifang Yin , Shengkai Chen , Yiyao Li , Lu Wang , Ruibing Jin , Wei Cui , Shili Xiang

Given real-time sensor data streams obtained from machines, how can we continuously predict when a machine failure will occur? This work aims to continuously forecast the timing of future events by analyzing multi-sensor data streams. A key…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-16 Kota Nakamura , Koki Kawabata , Yasuko Matsubara , Yasushi Sakurai

Forecasting models are pivotal in a data-driven world with vast volumes of time series data that appear as a compound of vast Linear and Nonlinear patterns. Recent deep time series forecasting models struggle to utilize seasonal and trend…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-02-26 Guoqi Yu , Yaoming Li , Xiaoyu Guo , Dayu Wang , Zirui Liu , Shujun Wang , Tong Yang

Domain adaptation is challenging for time series classification due to the highly dynamic nature. This study tackles the most difficult subtask when both target labels and source data are inaccessible, namely, source-free domain adaptation.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-22 Hankang Sun , Guiming Li , Su Yang , Baoqi Li

The key component in forecasting demand and consumption of resources in a supply network is an accurate prediction of real-valued time series. Indeed, both service interruptions and resource waste can be reduced with the implementation of…

神经与进化计算 · 计算机科学 2018-07-24 Filippo Maria Bianchi , Enrico Maiorino , Michael C. Kampffmeyer , Antonello Rizzi , Robert Jenssen

Time series forecasting serves as an essential tool for many real-world applications, supporting tasks such as resource optimization and decision-making. Despite significant architectural advancements, most modern models still treat…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-12 Sheng Pan , Ming Jin , Bo Du , Shirui Pan

Time-Series (TS) exhibits pronounced non-stationarity. Consequently, most forecasting methods display compromised robustness to concept drift, despite the prevalent application of instance normalization. We tackle this challenge by first…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-29 Daojun Liang , Jing Chen , Xiao Wang , Yinglong Wang , Shuo Li

Decomposing complex time series into trend, seasonality, and remainder components is an important task to facilitate time series anomaly detection and forecasting. Although numerous methods have been proposed, there are still many time…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-12-06 Qingsong Wen , Jingkun Gao , Xiaomin Song , Liang Sun , Huan Xu , Shenghuo Zhu

Resampling methods such as the bootstrap have proven invaluable in the field of machine learning. However, the applicability of traditional bootstrap methods is limited when dealing with large streams of dependent data, such as time series…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-28 Nicolai Palm , Thomas Nagler

This paper presents a new perspective on time series forecasting. In existing time series forecasting methods, the models take a sequence of numerical values as input and yield numerical values as output. The existing SOTA models are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-12 Hao Xue , Flora D. Salim

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various applications, particularly in healthcare, where accurate predictions of future health trajectories can significantly impact clinical decision-making. Ensuring transparency and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-05-22 Jeremy Qin

Accurate and timely weather forecasts are critical for high-impact decisions in modern society. Machine-learning-based weather prediction is emerging as an alternative for producing initial conditions, forecasts, and even both in end-to-end…

Extreme events are of great importance since they often represent impactive occurrences. For instance, in terms of climate and weather, extreme events might be major storms, floods, extreme heat or cold waves, and more. However, they are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-09-24 Jimeng Shi , Azam Shirali , Giri Narasimhan

The development of scientific data analyses is a resource-intensive process that often yields results with untapped potential for reuse and reinterpretation. In many cases, a developed analysis can be used to measure more than it was…

高能物理 - 实验 · 物理学 2025-07-16 Benjamin Nachman , Dennis Noll

This paper studies causal discovery in irregularly sampled time series-a key challenge in risk-sensitive domains like finance, healthcare, and climate science, where missing data and inconsistent sampling frequencies distort causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-12 Weihong Li , Baohong Li , Anpeng Wu , Zhihan Li , Ming Ma , Keting Yin , Kun Kuang

Modern distributed systems are highly dynamic and scalable, requiring monitoring solutions that can adapt to rapid changes. Monitoring systems that rely on external probes can only achieve adaptation through expensive operations such as…

软件工程 · 计算机科学 2024-05-24 Federico Alessi , Alessandro Tundo , Marco Mobilio , Oliviero Riganelli , Leonardo Mariani

Transfer learning uses a data model, trained to make predictions or inferences on data from one population, to make reliable predictions or inferences on data from another population. Most existing transfer learning approaches are based on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-01 Jimmy Hickey , Jonathan P. Williams , Emily C. Hector

Precipitation nowcasting, predicting future radar echo sequences from current observations, is a critical yet challenging task due to the inherently chaotic and tightly coupled spatio-temporal dynamics of the atmosphere. While recent…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-10-17 Thao Nguyen , Jiaqi Ma , Fahad Shahbaz Khan , Souhaib Ben Taieb , Salman Khan

AI-based weather forecasting now rivals traditional physics-based ensembles, but state-of-the-art (SOTA) models rely on specialized architectures and massive computational budgets, creating a high barrier to entry. We demonstrate that such…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-13 Salva Rühling Cachay , Duncan Watson-Parris , Rose Yu