相关论文: AIA Forecaster: Technical Report

Artificial intelligence is reshaping labor markets, yet we lack tools to systematically forecast its effects on employment. This paper introduces a benchmark for evaluating how well large language models (LLMs) can anticipate changes in job…

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a…

Weather forecasting is not only a predictive task but an interpretive scientific process requiring explanation, contextualization, and hypothesis generation. This paper introduces AI-Meteorologist, an explainable LLM-agent framework that…

The growing complexity of power systems has made accurate load forecasting more important than ever. An increasing number of advanced load forecasting methods have been developed. However, the static design of current methods offers no…

We present the Hierarchical AI-Meteorologist, an LLM-agent system that generates explainable weather reports using a hierarchical forecast reasoning and weather keyword generation. Unlike standard approaches that treat forecasts as flat…

Many recent papers have studied the development of superforecaster-level event forecasting LLMs. While methodological problems with early studies cast doubt on the use of LLMs for event forecasting, recent studies with improved evaluation…

Large language models (LLMs) match and sometimes exceeding human performance in many domains. This study explores the potential of LLMs to augment human judgement in a forecasting task. We evaluate the effect on human forecasters of two LLM…

This study investigates the forecasting accuracy of human experts versus Large Language Models (LLMs) in the retail sector, particularly during standard and promotional sales periods. Utilizing a controlled experimental setup with 123 human…

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have empowered LLM agents to autonomously collect world information, over which to conduct reasoning to solve complex problems. Given this capability, increasing interests have been put…

Monitoring forecasting systems is critical for customer satisfaction, profitability, and operational efficiency in large-scale retail businesses. We propose The Forecast Critic, a system that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) for…

Modern time-series forecasting models often fail to make full use of rich unstructured information about the time series themselves. This lack of proper conditioning can lead to obvious model failures; for example, models may be unaware of…

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM…

Power dispatch is essential for providing stable, cost-effective, and eco-friendly electricity to society. However, traditional methods falter as power systems grow in scale and complexity, struggling with multitasking, swift…

Accurate load forecasting is crucial for maintaining the power balance between generators and consumers,particularly with the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, which introduce significant intermittent volatility. With the…

In the constantly changing field of data-driven decision making, accurately predicting future events is crucial for strategic planning in various sectors. The emergence of Large Language Models (LLMs) marks a significant advancement in this…

We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) Linguistic belief state: a…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly applied to forecasting. To evaluate this capability while mitigating pre-training data contamination, several living benchmarks have been proposed. However, existing benchmarks either lack the…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into critical decision-making pipelines, a trend that raises the demand for robust and automated data analysis. Current approaches to dataset risk analysis are limited to manual…

This paper introduces IEA-plugin, a novel AI agent-based reasoning module developed as a new front-end for the Intelligent Engineering Assistant (IEA). The primary objective of IEA-plugin is to utilize the advanced reasoning and coding…

Evaluating large language model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems remains a critical challenge, as these systems must exhibit reliable coordination, transparent decision-making, and verifiable performance across evolving tasks. Existing…