相关论文: Towards Causal Market Simulators

Variational autoencoders (VAEs), that are built upon deep neural networks have emerged as popular generative models in computer vision. Most of the work towards improving variational autoencoders has focused mainly on making the…

Generative models for financial time series often create data that look realistic and even reproduce stylized facts such as fat tails or volatility clustering. However, these apparent successes break down under trading backtests: models…

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) provide recourse recommendations for individuals affected by algorithmic decisions. A key challenge is generating CEs that are robust against various perturbation types (e.g. input and model perturbations)…

Counterfactual estimation over time is important in various applications, such as personalized medicine. However, time-dependent confounding bias in observational data still poses a significant challenge in achieving accurate and efficient…

We study the problem of automatically discovering Granger causal relations from observational multivariate time-series data.Vector autoregressive (VAR) models have been time-tested for this problem, including Bayesian variants and more…

We propose a family of novel hierarchical Bayesian deep auto-encoder models capable of identifying disentangled factors of variability in data. While many recent attempts at factor disentanglement have focused on sophisticated learning…

We study short-horizon forecasting in financial time series under strict causal constraints, treating the market as a non-stationary stochastic system in which any predictive observable must be computable online from information available…

This work proposes variational autoencoders (VAEs) to predict a vehicle's jerk signals from torque demand in the context of limited real-world drivetrain datasets. We implement both unconditional and conditional VAEs, trained on…

Estimating causal relations is vital in understanding the complex interactions in multivariate time series. Non-linear coupling of variables is one of the major challenges inaccurate estimation of cause-effect relations. In this paper, we…

Paradoxically, a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) could be pushed in two opposite directions, utilizing powerful decoder model for generating realistic images but collapsing the learned representation, or increasing regularization coefficient…

Graphical structures estimated by causal learning algorithms from time series data can provide misleading causal information if the causal timescale of the generating process fails to match the measurement timescale of the data. Existing…

Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining.…

Estimation of causal effects is fundamental in situations were the underlying system will be subject to active interventions. Part of building a causal inference engine is defining how variables relate to each other, that is, defining the…

We consider the task of counterfactual estimation from observational imaging data given a known causal structure. In particular, quantifying the causal effect of interventions for high-dimensional data with neural networks remains an open…

We propose a quantum algorithm for sampling from a solution of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). Using differentiable quantum circuits (DQCs) with a feature map encoding of latent variables, we represent the quantile function for an…

The deployment of reinforcement learning (RL)-based controllers on physical systems is often limited by poor generalization to real-world scenarios, known as the simulation-to-reality (sim-to-real) gap. This gap is particularly challenging…

We propose a Weighted Autoregressive Varying gatE (WAVE) attention mechanism equipped with both Autoregressive (AR) and Moving-average (MA) components. It can adapt to various attention mechanisms, enhancing and decoupling their ability to…

Deep latent variable models (LVM) such as variational auto-encoder (VAE) have recently played an important role in text generation. One key factor is the exploitation of smooth latent structures to guide the generation. However, the…

Latent variable models such as the Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) have become a go-to tool for analyzing biological data, especially in the field of single-cell genomics. One remaining challenge is the interpretability of latent variables…

We propose a counterfactual approach to train ``causality-aware" predictive models that are able to leverage causal information in static anticausal machine learning tasks (i.e., prediction tasks where the outcome influences the features).…