相关论文: Foundation Model Forecasts: Form and Function

In recent years, advancements in deep learning have spurred the development of numerous models for Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF). However, most existing approaches struggle to fully capture the complex and structured dependencies…

Time series forecasting predicts future values from past data. In real-world settings, some anomalous events have lasting effects and influence the forecast, while others are short-lived and should be ignored. Standard forecasting models…

Real-world time series data are inherently multivariate, often exhibiting complex inter-channel dependencies. Each channel is typically sampled at its own period and is prone to missing values due to various practical and operational…

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) promise to be powerful tools for a wide range of applications. However, their internal representations and learned concepts are still not well understood. In this study, we investigate the structure and…

A deterministic temporal process can be determined by its trajectory, an element in the product space of (a) initial condition $z_0 \in \mathcal{Z}$ and (b) transition function $f: (\mathcal{Z}, \mathcal{T}) \to \mathcal{Z}$ often…

Trajectory prediction serves as a critical functionality in autonomous driving, enabling the anticipation of future motion paths for traffic participants such as vehicles and pedestrians, which is essential for driving safety. Although…

Transformer-based models have emerged as powerful tools for multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF). However, existing Transformer models often fall short of capturing both intricate dependencies across variate and temporal dimensions…

This paper presents non-parametric baseline models for time series forecasting. Unlike classical forecasting models, the proposed approach does not assume any parametric form for the predictive distribution and instead generates predictions…

The proliferation of time series foundation models has created a landscape where no single method achieves consistent superiority, framing the central challenge not as finding the best model, but as orchestrating an optimal ensemble with…

Foundational models (FMs), pretrained on extensive datasets using self-supervised techniques, are capable of learning generalized patterns from large amounts of data. This reduces the need for extensive labeled datasets for each new task,…

Time series forecasting is an important and forefront task in many real-world applications. However, most of time series forecasting techniques assume that the training data is clean without anomalies. This assumption is unrealistic since…

Recent developments related to the energy transition pose particular challenges for distribution grids. Hence, precise load forecasts become more and more important for effective grid management. Novel modeling approaches such as the…

Multivariate time-series forecasting holds immense value across diverse applications, requiring methods to effectively capture complex temporal and inter-variable dynamics. A key challenge lies in uncovering the intrinsic patterns that…

Providing long-range forecasts is a fundamental challenge in time series modeling, which is only compounded by the challenge of having to form such forecasts when a time series has never previously been observed. The latter challenge is the…

Transformers have demonstrated impressive strength in long-term series forecasting. Existing prediction research mostly focused on mapping past short sub-series (lookback window) to future series (forecast window). The longer training…

Transformer-based models have recently become dominant in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), yet the variations in their architecture, such as encoder-only, encoder-decoder, and decoder-only designs, raise a crucial question: What…

Recent Transformer-based large language models (LLMs) demonstrate in-context learning ability to perform various functions based solely on the provided context, without updating model parameters. To fully utilize the in-context capabilities…

The versatility of self-attention mechanism earned transformers great success in almost all data modalities, with limitations on the quadratic complexity and difficulty of training. To apply transformers across different data modalities,…

Time-series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have recently emerged as a universal paradigm for learning across diverse temporal domains. However, despite their empirical success, the internal mechanisms by which these models represent fundamental…

Time series forecasting models have diverse real world applications (e.g., from electricity metrics to software workload). Latest foundational models trained for time series forecasting show strengths (e.g., for long sequences and in…