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Dealing with uncertainty is essential for efficient reinforcement learning. There is a growing literature on uncertainty estimation for deep learning from fixed datasets, but many of the most popular approaches are poorly-suited to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-11-16 Ian Osband , John Aslanides , Albin Cassirer

Designing effective model-based reinforcement learning algorithms is difficult because the ease of data generation must be weighed against the bias of model-generated data. In this paper, we study the role of model usage in policy…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-30 Michael Janner , Justin Fu , Marvin Zhang , Sergey Levine

Time series foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a popular paradigm for zero-shot multi-domain forecasting. These models are trained on numerous diverse datasets and claim to be effective forecasters across multiple different time series…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2025-05-19 Anubha Goel , Puneet Pasricha , Martin Magris , Juho Kanniainen

Large language models are pre-trained on ever-growing token budgets under the assumption that better pre-training performance translates to improved downstream models. In this work, we challenge this assumption and show that extended…

Training foundation models on extensive datasets and then finetuning them on specific tasks has emerged as the mainstream approach in artificial intelligence. However, the model robustness, which is a critical aspect for safety, is often…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-12-15 Kai Qiu , Huishuai Zhang , Zhirong Wu , Stephen Lin

Large Language Models (LLMs) are pretrained on massive datasets and later instruction-tuned via supervised fine-tuning (SFT) or reinforcement learning (RL). Best practices emphasize large, diverse pretraining data, whereas post-training…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-03 Adel Javanmard , Baharan Mirzasoleiman , Vahab Mirrokni

For a Bayesian, real-time forecasting with the posterior predictive distribution can be challenging for a variety of time series models. First, estimating the parameters of a time series model can be difficult with sample-based approaches…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-08-08 Taylor R. Brown

In this work, we propose an ensemble forecasting approach based on randomized neural networks. Improved randomized learning streamlines the fitting abilities of individual learners by generating network parameters in accordance with the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-07-12 Grzegorz Dudek , Paweł Pełka

Artificial intelligence and machine learning have shown great promise in their ability to accelerate novel materials discovery. As researchers and domain scientists seek to unify and consolidate chemical knowledge, the case for models with…

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) were recently proposed as a new paradigm for machine learning. Instead of training the network to an observed training set, a fixed model is pre-trained offline on small, simulated training sets from a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-05-19 Thomas Nagler

Standard selection criteria for forecasting models focus on information that is calculated for each series independently, disregarding the general tendencies and performances of the candidate models. In this paper, we propose a new way to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-04-21 Fotios Petropoulos , Evangelos Spiliotis , Anastasios Panagiotelis

Time series foundation models provide a universal solution for generating forecasts to support optimization problems in energy systems. Those foundation models are typically trained in a prediction-focused manner to maximize forecast…

Tree-based models have proven to be an effective solution for web ranking as well as other problems in diverse domains. This paper focuses on optimizing the runtime performance of applying such models to make predictions, given an…

数据库 · 计算机科学 2013-04-29 Nima Asadi , Jimmy Lin , Arjen P. de Vries

Recent advancements in large language models have intensified the need for efficient and deployable models within limited inference budgets. Structured pruning pipelines have shown promise in token efficiency compared to training…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-03-11 Yixiao Li , Xianzhi Du , Ajay Jaiswal , Tao Lei , Tuo Zhao , Chong Wang , Jianyu Wang

Online model selection involves selecting a model from a set of candidate models 'on the fly' to perform prediction on a stream of data. The choice of candidate models henceforth has a crucial impact on the performance. Although employing a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-22 Pouya M. Ghari , Yanning Shen

Time-series forecasting is an essential task with wide real-world applications across domains. While recent advances in deep learning have enabled time-series forecasting models with accurate predictions, there remains considerable debate…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-26 Zhiyuan Zhao , Juntong Ni , Shangqing Xu , Haoxin Liu , Wei Jin , B. Aditya Prakash

Augmenting a base constraint model with additional constraints can strengthen the inferences made by a solver and therefore reduce search effort. We focus on the automatic addition of streamliner constraints, derived from the types present…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2020-09-23 Patrick Spracklen , Nguyen Dang , Özgür Akgün , Ian Miguel

This paper presents non-parametric baseline models for time series forecasting. Unlike classical forecasting models, the proposed approach does not assume any parametric form for the predictive distribution and instead generates predictions…

Many deep learning applications benefit from using large models with billions of parameters. Training these models is notoriously expensive due to the need for specialized HPC clusters. In this work, we consider alternative setups for…

分布式、并行与集群计算 · 计算机科学 2023-06-30 Max Ryabinin , Tim Dettmers , Michael Diskin , Alexander Borzunov

With the success of pretraining techniques in representation learning, a number of continual learning methods based on pretrained models have been proposed. Some of these methods design continual learning mechanisms on the pre-trained…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2023-03-30 Paul Janson , Wenxuan Zhang , Rahaf Aljundi , Mohamed Elhoseiny