相关论文: Efficiently Generating Correlated Sample Paths fro…

As a highly expressive generative model, diffusion models have demonstrated exceptional success across various domains, including image generation, natural language processing, and combinatorial optimization. However, as data distributions…

Sampling from multimodal distributions is a challenging task in scientific computing. When a distribution has an exact symmetry between the modes, direct jumps among them can accelerate the samplings significantly. However, the…

Societal and industrial infrastructures and systems increasingly leverage sensors that emit correlated time series. Forecasting of future values of such time series based on recorded historical values has important benefits. Automatically…

We consider a setting where multiple entities inter-act with each other over time and the time-varying statuses of the entities are represented as multiple correlated time series. For example, speed sensors are deployed in different…

Machine learning and computational intelligence technologies gain more and more popularity as possible solution for issues related to the power grid. One of these issues, the power flow calculation, is an iterative method to compute the…

Our article is concerned with adaptive sampling schemes for Bayesian inference that update the proposal densities using previous iterates. We introduce a copula based proposal density which is made more efficient by combining it with…

We show how to construct the implied copula process of response values from a Bayesian additive regression tree (BART) model with prior on the leaf node variances. This copula process, defined on the covariate space, can be paired with any…

This paper proposes a new method to generate synthetic data sets based on copula models. Our goal is to produce surrogate data resembling real data in terms of marginal and joint distributions. We present a complete and reliable algorithm…

The popular choice of using a $direct$ forecasting scheme implies that the individual predictions do not contain information on cross-horizon dependence. However, this dependence is needed if the forecaster has to construct, based on…

Copulas are a powerful tool for modeling multivariate distributions as they allow to separately estimate the univariate marginal distributions and the joint dependency structure. However, known parametric copulas offer limited flexibility…

In the copula-based approach to univariate time series modeling, the finite dimensional temporal dependence of a stationary time series is captured by a copula. Recent studies investigate how copula-based time series models can be…

Latent autoregressive processes are a popular choice to model time varying parameters. These models can be formulated as nonlinear state space models for which inference is not straightforward due to the high number of parameters. Therefore…

This paper lays out a principled approach to compare copula forecasts via strictly consistent scores. We first establish the negative result that, in general, copulas fail to be elicitable, implying that copula predictions cannot sensibly…

Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when…

To monitor critical infrastructure, high quality sensors sampled at a high frequency are increasingly used. However, as they produce huge amounts of data, only simple aggregates are stored. This removes outliers and fluctuations that could…

Sampling-based motion planners (SBMPs) are widely used to compute dynamically feasible robot paths. However, their reliance on uniform sampling often leads to poor efficiency and slow planning in complex environments. We introduce a novel…

Flow matching has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for generative modeling and has been extended to probabilistic time series forecasting in latent spaces. However, the impact of the specific choice of probability path model on…

We introduce a general approach for modeling the dynamic of multivariate time series when the data are of mixed type (binary/count/continuous). Our method is quite flexible and conditionally on past values, each coordinate at time $t$ can…

Predicting the time series of future evolutions of renewable injections and demands is of utmost importance for the operation of power systems. However, the current state of the art is mostly focused on mean-value time series predictions…

Ensemble weather forecasts based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models typically show systematic errors and require post-processing to obtain reliable forecasts. Accurately modeling multivariate dependencies is crucial in…