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Unreliable predictions can occur when using artificial intelligence (AI) systems with negative consequences for downstream applications, particularly when employed for decision-making. Conformal prediction provides a model-agnostic…

AI predictive systems are increasingly embedded in decision making pipelines, shaping high stakes choices once made solely by humans. Yet robust decisions under uncertainty still rely on capabilities that current AI lacks: domain knowledge…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-10-28 Sima Noorani , Shayan Kiyani , George Pappas , Hamed Hassani

Despite growing interest in using large language models (LLMs) to automate annotation, their effectiveness in complex, nuanced, and multi-dimensional labelling tasks remains relatively underexplored. This study focuses on annotation for the…

信息检索 · 计算机科学 2025-07-02 Leila Tavakoli , Hamed Zamani

Methods to quantify uncertainty in predictions from arbitrary models are in demand in high-stakes domains like medicine and finance. Conformal prediction has emerged as a popular method for producing a set of predictions with specified…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-19 Jessica Hullman , Yifan Wu , Dawei Xie , Ziyang Guo , Andrew Gelman

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI), in particular foundation models, have improved the state of the art in many application domains including geosciences. Some specific problems, however, could not benefit from this progress…

Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-24 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Claes Lundström

Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-07 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

In interactive imitation learning (IL), uncertainty quantification offers a way for the learner (i.e. robot) to contend with distribution shifts encountered during deployment by actively seeking additional feedback from an expert (i.e.…

机器人学 · 计算机科学 2025-05-01 Michelle Zhao , Reid Simmons , Henny Admoni , Aaditya Ramdas , Andrea Bajcsy

High-quality labeled data is essential for training robust machine learning models, yet obtaining annotations at scale remains expensive. AI-assisted annotation has therefore become standard in large-scale labeling workflows. However, in…

人机交互 · 计算机科学 2026-05-13 Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Joshua Holstein , Philipp Spitzer , Nadja Klein , Gerhard Satzger

In response to everyday queries, humans explicitly signal uncertainty and offer alternative answers when they are unsure. Machine learning models that output calibrated prediction sets through conformal prediction mimic this human…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-11 Jesse C. Cresswell , Yi Sui , Bhargava Kumar , Noël Vouitsis

Despite extensive research on neural network calibration, existing methods typically apply global transformations that treat all predictions uniformly, overlooking the heterogeneous reliability of individual predictions. Furthermore, the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-22 Hassan Gharoun , Mohammad Sadegh Khorshidi , Kasra Ranjbarigderi , Fang Chen , Amir H. Gandomi

Quantifying forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and data assimilation systems. Ensemble-based data assimilation systems incorporate state-dependent uncertainty quantification based on…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2023-05-17 Maximiliano A. Sacco , Manuel Pulido , Juan J. Ruiz , Pierre Tandeo

Deep learning models are being adopted and applied on various critical decision-making tasks, yet they are trained to provide point predictions without providing degrees of confidence. The trustworthiness of deep learning models can be…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-28 Daniel Nolte , Souparno Ghosh , Ranadip Pal

Conformal prediction provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample coverage guarantees. While recent work has extended conformal prediction to online and sequential settings, existing methods typically…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-14 Eduardo Ochoa Rivera , Ambuj Tewari

Human-in-the-loop (HITL) frameworks are increasingly recognized for their potential to improve annotation accuracy in emotion estimation systems by combining machine predictions with human expertise. This study focuses on integrating a…

人机交互 · 计算机科学 2025-06-10 Sahana Yadnakudige Subramanya , Ko Watanabe , Andreas Dengel , Shoya Ishimaru

Content moderation typically combines the efforts of human moderators and machine learning models. However, these systems often rely on data where significant disagreement occurs during moderation, reflecting the subjective nature of…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-09-01 Guillermo Villate-Castillo , Javier Del Ser , Borja Sanz

Most image restoration problems are ill-conditioned or ill-posed and hence involve significant uncertainty. Quantifying this uncertainty is crucial for reliably interpreting experimental results, particularly when reconstructed images…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2025-02-10 Jasper M. Everink , Bernardin Tamo Amougou , Marcelo Pereyra

Black-box machine learning models are now routinely used in high-risk settings, like medical diagnostics, which demand uncertainty quantification to avoid consequential model failures. Conformal prediction is a user-friendly paradigm for…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-08 Anastasios N. Angelopoulos , Stephen Bates

As instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) evolve, aligning pretrained foundation models presents increasing challenges. Existing alignment strategies, which typically leverage diverse and high-quality data sources, often overlook…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-06-10 Yikun Wang , Rui Zheng , Liang Ding , Qi Zhang , Dahua Lin , Dacheng Tao
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