相关论文: Sensitivity analysis of an epidemic model with a m…
Considering the global pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), around the world several vaccines are being developed. Till now, these vaccines are the most effective way to reduce the high burden on the global health…
With significant population fractions in many societies who refuse vaccines, it is important to reconsider how vaccination is incorporated into compartmental epidemiology models. It is still most common to apply the vaccination rate to the…
We investigated the negative relationship between mortality and COVID-19 vaccination at ecological level, which has been established through clinical trials and other investigations at the individual level. We conducted an exploratory,…
Sensitivity Analysis (SA) is a useful tool to measure the impact of changes in model parameters on the infection dynamics, particularly to quantify the expected efficacy of disease control strategies. SA has only been applied to epidemic…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…
We explore the inclusion of vaccination in compartmental epidemiological models concerning the delta and omicron variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic. We expand on our earlier compartmental-model work by…
The test-negative design has become popular for evaluating the effectiveness of post-licensure vaccines using observational data. In addition to its logistical convenience on data collection, the design is also believed to control for the…
Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…
We perform an analytical sensitivity analysis for a model of a continuous-time branching process evolving on a fixed network. This allows us to determine the relative importance of the model parameters to the growth of the population on the…
We generalize the Susceptible-Infected-Removed model for epidemics to take into account generic effects of heterogeneity in the degree of susceptibility to infection in the population. We introduce a single new parameter corresponding to a…
Motivated by massive outbreaks of COVID-19 that occurred even in populations with high vaccine uptake, we propose a novel multi-population temporal network model for the spread of recurrent epidemic diseases. We study the effect of human…
Background: Recently, a high number of daily positive COVID-19 cases have been reported in regions with relatively high vaccination rates; hence, booster vaccination has become necessary. In addition, infections caused by the different…
Misinformation about vaccination poses a significant public health threat by reducing vaccination rates and increasing disease burden. Understanding population heterogeneity can aid in recognizing and mitigating the effects of such…
Diverse and complex intervention policies deployed over the last years have shown varied effectiveness in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a systematic analysis and modelling of the combined effects of different viral lineages…
The waning of immunity after recovery or vaccination is a major factor accounting for the severity and prolonged duration of an array of epidemics, ranging from COVID-19 to diphtheria and pertussis. To study the effectiveness of different…
This paper uses new and existing methods to study collective trends across countries throughout the pandemic, with a focus on the multivariate time series of reproduction numbers and vaccine proliferation. We begin with a time-varying…
The rapid development of vaccines to combat the spread of COVID-19 disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus is a great scientific achievement. Before the development of the COVID-19 vaccines, most studies capitalized on the available data…
Models for epidemic spread typically account for variable risk factors but do not account for the correlation between behavior and risk. Here we extend these models to account for such correlations. We find that a positive correlation…
In this article, we deal with COVID-19 data to study the trend of the epidemic at the global situation. Choosing the mortality rate as an appropriate metric which measures the relative relation between the cumulative confirmed cases and…
We develop a model of infection spread that takes into account the existence of a vulnerable group as well as the variability of the social relations of individuals. We develop a compartmentalized power-law model, with power-law connections…