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In this paper, by treating in-context learning (ICL) as a meta-optimization process, we explain why LLMs are sensitive to the order of ICL examples. This understanding leads us to the development of Batch-ICL, an effective, efficient, and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-06 Kaiyi Zhang , Ang Lv , Yuhan Chen , Hansen Ha , Tao Xu , Rui Yan

The capabilities of large language models (LLMs) have expanded beyond natural language processing to scientific prediction tasks, including molecular property prediction. However, their effectiveness in in-context learning remains…

In this work we consider Bayesian inference problems with intractable likelihood functions. We present a method to compute an approximate of the posterior with a limited number of model simulations. The method features an inverse Gaussian…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-02-23 Hongqiao Wang , Ziqiao Ao , Tengchao Yu , Jinglai Li

We propose Bayesian optimal sequential prediction as a new principle for understanding in-context learning (ICL). Unlike interpretations framing Transformers as performing implicit gradient descent, we formalize ICL as meta-learning over…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-23 Di Zhang , Jiaqi Xing

We introduce a general approach to characterize composite fading models based on inverse gamma (IG) shadowing. We first determine to what extent the IG distribution is an adequate choice for modeling shadow fading, by means of a…

信息论 · 计算机科学 2024-10-30 Pablo Ramírez-Espinosa , F. Javier Lopez-Martinez

The instrumental variables (IVs) method is a leading empirical strategy for causal inference. Finding IVs is a heuristic and creative process, and justifying its validity -- especially exclusion restrictions -- is largely rhetorical. We…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-06-06 Sukjin Han

Data augmentation is often used to incorporate inductive biases into models. Traditionally, these are hand-crafted and tuned with cross validation. The Bayesian paradigm for model selection provides a path towards end-to-end learning of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-03-02 Pola Schwöbel , Martin Jørgensen , Sebastian W. Ober , Mark van der Wilk

Discrete data are abundant and often arise as counts or rounded data. These data commonly exhibit complex distributional features such as zero-inflation, over-/under-dispersion, boundedness, and heaping, which render many parametric models…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-27 Daniel R. Kowal , Bohan Wu

Machine learning methods for computational imaging require uncertainty estimation to be reliable in real settings. While Bayesian models offer a computationally tractable way of recovering uncertainty, they need large data volumes to be…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-08-24 Francesco Tonolini , Jack Radford , Alex Turpin , Daniele Faccio , Roderick Murray-Smith

Motivated by the need to study the molecular mechanism underlying Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) with the gene expression data collected from both the patients and healthy controls at multiple time points, we propose an innovative method for jointly…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-12-10 Bochao Jia , Faming Liang , the TEDDY Study Group

We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation inference using a rescaled smooth Gaussian field as a prior for a multidimensional function. The rescaling is achieved using a Gamma variable and the procedure can be viewed as choosing an…

统计理论 · 数学 2009-08-26 A. W. van der Vaart , J. H. van Zanten

Variational Bayesian posterior inference often requires simplifying approximations such as mean-field parametrisation to ensure tractability. However, prior work has associated the variational mean-field approximation for Bayesian neural…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-07 Richard Kurle , Ralf Herbrich , Tim Januschowski , Yuyang Wang , Jan Gasthaus

Models are expected to engage in invariance learning, which involves distinguishing the core relations that remain consistent across varying environments to ensure the predictions are safe, robust and fair. While existing works consider…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-11 Yang Xu , Yihong Gu , Cong Fang

We introduce Generalized Integrated Gradients (GIG), a formal extension of the Integrated Gradients (IG) (Sundararajan et al., 2017) method for attributing credit to the input variables of a predictive model. GIG improves IG by explaining a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-09-10 John Merrill , Geoff Ward , Sean Kamkar , Jay Budzik , Douglas Merrill

Automated interlinear gloss prediction with neural networks is a promising approach to accelerate language documentation efforts. However, while state-of-the-art models like GlossLM achieve high scores on glossing benchmarks, user studies…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-01-26 Michael Ginn , Lindia Tjuatja , Enora Rice , Ali Marashian , Maria Valentini , Jasmine Xu , Graham Neubig , Alexis Palmer

We introduce Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM), a learning paradigm to estimate invariant correlations across multiple training distributions. To achieve this goal, IRM learns a data representation such that the optimal classifier, on top…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-03-31 Martin Arjovsky , Léon Bottou , Ishaan Gulrajani , David Lopez-Paz

Gaussian Process Latent Variable Models (GPLVMs) have become increasingly popular for unsupervised tasks such as dimensionality reduction and missing data recovery due to their flexibility and non-linear nature. An importance-weighted…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-10 Jian Xu , Shian Du , Junmei Yang , Qianli Ma , Delu Zeng , John Paisley

Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-03-30 Elan Rosenfeld , Pradeep Ravikumar , Andrej Risteski

A strategy is presented to incorporate prior information from conceptual geological models in probabilistic inversion of geophysical data. The conceptual geological models are represented by multiple-point statistics training images (TIs)…

地球物理 · 物理学 2017-01-06 T. Lochbühler , J. A. Vrugt , M. Sadegh , N. Linde

The normal-normal hierarchical model (NNHM) constitutes a simple and widely used framework for meta-analysis. In the common case of only few studies contributing to the meta-analysis, standard approaches to inference tend to perform poorly,…