相关论文: Quantification of the cascading tipping probabilit…

Declines in resilience have been observed in several climate tipping elements over the past decades, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest (AR). Large-scale nonlinear and possibly…

The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the core tipping elements in the climate system with a potential tipping point from rainforest to savannah between 2 and 6 {\deg}C of global warming. However, ongoing deforestation constitutes an…

With the recent increase in deforestation, forest fires, and regional temperatures, the concerns around the rapid and complete collapse of the Amazon rainforest ecosystem have heightened. The thresholds of deforestation and the temperature…

One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse due to the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in…

Tipping points occur in diverse systems in various disciplines such as ecology, climate science, economy or engineering. Tipping points are critical thresholds in system parameters or state variables at which a tiny perturbation can lead to…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is an important component of the global climate, known to be a tipping element, as it could collapse under global warming. The main objective of this study is to compute the probability…

With rising global temperatures Earth's tipping elements are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to crossing their critical thresholds. The reaching of such tipping points does not only impact other tipping elements through their…

Amazon forest dieback is seen as a potential tipping point under climate change. These concerns are partly based-on an early coupled climate-carbon cycle simulation, that produced unusually strong drying and warming in Amazonia. In…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element of the climate system. The current estimate of the global warming threshold for the onset of an AMOC collapse is +4.0C (uncertainty range 1.4-8C). However, such a…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate system and considered to be a tipping element. There is still a large uncertainty on the critical global warming level at which the AMOC will start to…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is recognized as a tipping element within the global climate system. Central to its tipping behavior is the salt-advection feedback mechanism, which has been extensively studied in box…

The Amazon rainforest is considered one of the Earth's tipping elements and may lose stability under ongoing climate change. Recently a decrease in tropical rainforest resilience has been identified globally from remotely sensed vegetation…

Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…

Projections from global climate models reveal a significant inter-model spread in future rainfall changes in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the 21st century, including alterations to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and…

Understanding how vegetation loss alters rainfall remains a major challenge in climate and hydrological science, as deforestation modifies precipitation through heterogeneous, seasonal and nonlinear land-atmosphere feedbacks. Existing…

Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…

Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…

There is increasing concern that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may collapse this century with a disrupting societal impact on large parts of the world. Preliminary estimates of the probability of such an AMOC…

This paper undertakes an analysis of deforestation in the Amazon area using a pathways-based approach to sustainability. We ground the analysis primarily in the sustainability transitions literature but also draw a bridge with…

This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…