相关论文: A Review and Classification of Model Uncertainty

Estimating uncertainty of machine learning models is essential to assess the quality of the predictions that these models provide. However, there are several factors that influence the quality of uncertainty estimates, one of which is the…

How do we know how much we know? Quantifying uncertainty associated with our modelling work is the only way we can answer how much we know about any phenomenon. With quantitative science now highly influential in the public sphere and the…

This book chapter introduces the principles and practical applications of uncertainty quantification in machine learning. It explains how to identify and distinguish between different types of uncertainty and presents methods for…

ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, understanding and quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions is critical for enhancing application credibility. However, the existing literature relevant to LLM uncertainty…

Modelling uncertainty in Machine Learning models is essential for achieving safe and reliable predictions. Most research on uncertainty focuses on output uncertainty (predictions), but minimal attention is paid to uncertainty at inputs. We…

Uncertainty plays a crucial role in the machine learning field. Both model trustworthiness and performance require the understanding of uncertainty, especially for models used in high-stake applications where errors can cause cataclysmic…

When the cost of misclassifying a sample is high, it is useful to have an accurate estimate of uncertainty in the prediction for that sample. There are also multiple types of uncertainty which are best estimated in different ways, for…

Predictive uncertainty estimation of pre-trained language models is an important measure of how likely people can trust their predictions. However, little is known about what makes a model prediction uncertain. Explaining predictive…

In recent years, Large Language Models (LLMs) have become fundamental to a broad spectrum of artificial intelligence applications. As the use of LLMs expands, precisely estimating the uncertainty in their predictions has become crucial.…

Accurately estimating uncertainties in neural network predictions is of great importance in building trusted DNNs-based models, and there is an increasing interest in providing accurate uncertainty estimation on many tasks, such as security…

Models necessarily capture only parts of a reality. Prediction models aim at capturing a future reality. In this paper we address the question of how the future is constructed (or: imagined) in an investment context where market…

We discuss several aspects of creation of adequate mathematical models in other sciences. In particular, many difficulties stem from great complexity of the source systems and the presence of a variety of uncertain factors. We illustrate…

Uncertainty in machine learning refers to the degree of confidence or lack thereof in a model's predictions. While uncertainty quantification methods exist, explanations of uncertainty, especially in high-dimensional settings, remain an…

Most machine learning techniques are based upon statistical learning theory, often simplified for the sake of computing speed. This paper is focused on the uncertainty aspect of mathematical modeling in machine learning. Regression analysis…

The estimation of the amount of uncertainty featured by predictive machine learning models has acquired a great momentum in recent years. Uncertainty estimation provides the user with augmented information about the model's confidence in…

The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with…

Model stealing aims at inferring a victim model's functionality at a fraction of the original training cost. While the goal is clear, in practice the model's architecture, weight dimension, and original training data can not be determined…

Uncertainty quantification of complex technical systems is often based on a computer model of the system. As all models such a computer model is always wrong in the sense that it does not describe the reality perfectly. The purpose of this…

Existing procedures for model validation have been deemed inadequate for many engineering systems. The reason of this inadequacy is due to the high degree of complexity of the mechanisms that govern these systems. It is proposed in this…