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This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-07-30 Dan Li , Vassili Kitsios , David Newth , Terence John O'Kane

Soil texture is a foundational attribute that governs water availability and erosion in agriculture, as well as load bearing capacity, deformation response, and shrink-swell risk in geotechnical engineering. Yet texture is still typically…

We introduce a novel forecasting model for crop yields that explicitly accounts for spatio-temporal dependence and the influence of extreme weather and climatic events. Our approach combines Bayesian Structural Time Series for modeling…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-01 Marie Michaelides , Mélina Mailhot , Yongkun Li

Multilevel compositional data are data that are repeatedly measured or clustered within groups and are non-negative and sum to a constant value. These data arise in various settings, such as intensive, longitudinal studies using ecological…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-21 Flora Le , Tyman E. Stanford , Dorothea Dumuid , Joshua F. Wiley

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal associations in multivariate geolocated data of different types is achievable via spatial random effects in a Bayesian hierarchical model, but severe computational bottlenecks arise when spatial…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-04-02 Michele Peruzzi , David B. Dunson

We propose a spatio-temporal data-fusion framework for point data and gridded data with variables observed on different spatial supports. A latent Gaussian field with a Mat\'ern-SPDE prior provides a continuous space representation, while…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-19 Weiyue Zheng , Andrew Elliott , Claire Miller , Marian Scott

Spatial functional data arise in many settings, such as particulate matter curves observed at monitoring stations and age population curves at each areal unit. Most existing functional regression models have limited applicability because…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-25 Heesang Lee , Dagun Oh , Sunhwa Choi , Jaewoo Park

We propose a flexible Bayesian approach for estimating the joint density of a multivariate outcome of interest in the presence of categorical covariates. Leveraging a Gaussian copula framework, our method effectively captures the dependence…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-10 Giovanni Toto , Peter Müller , Abhra Sarkar

We develop Bayesian nonparametric models for spatially indexed data of mixed type. Our work is motivated by challenges that occur in environmental epidemiology, where the usual presence of several confounding variables that exhibit complex…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-10-17 Georgios Papageorgiou , Sylvia Richardson , Nicky Best

We present a novel Bayesian spatial disaggregation model for count data, providing fast and flexible inference at high resolution. First, it incorporates non-linear covariate effects using penalized splines, a flexible approach that is not…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-13 Sara Rutten , Thomas Neyens , Elisa Duarte , Christel Faes

Copula models have become one of the most widely used tools in the applied modelling of multivariate data. Similarly, Bayesian methods are increasingly used to obtain efficient likelihood-based inference. However, to date, there has been…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2015-10-13 Michael Stanley Smith

We introduce a nonstationary spatio-temporal statistical model for gridded data on the sphere. The model specifies a computationally convenient covariance structure that depends on heterogeneous geography. Widely used statistical models on…

应用统计 · 统计学 2016-02-25 Stefano Castruccio , Joseph Guinness

High resolution geospatial data are challenging because standard geostatistical models based on Gaussian processes are known to not scale to large data sizes. While progress has been made towards methods that can be computed more…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-12-03 Michele Peruzzi , David B. Dunson

We introduce a novel Bayesian approach for both covariate selection and sparse precision matrix estimation in the context of high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models involving multiple responses. Our approach provides a sparse estimation…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-25 Anwesha Chakravarti , Naveen N. Narishetty , Feng Liang

Technological developments and open data policies have made large, global environmental datasets accessible to everyone. For analysing such datasets, including spatiotemporal correlations using traditional models based on Gaussian processes…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-07-01 Marius Appel , Edzer Pebesma

This paper presents an innovative extension of spatial autoregressive (SAR) models, introducing spatial coefficients specific to each spatial region that evolve over time. The proposed estimation methodology covers both homoscedastic and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-02-24 N. A. Cruz , D. A. Romero , O. O. Melo

Causal inference using observational text data is becoming increasingly popular in many research areas. This paper presents the Bayesian Topic Regression (BTR) model that uses both text and numerical information to model an outcome…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-09-14 Maximilian Ahrens , Julian Ashwin , Jan-Peter Calliess , Vu Nguyen

Spatially misaligned data can be fused by using a Bayesian melding model that assumes that underlying all observations there is a spatially continuous Gaussian random field process. This model can be used, for example, to predict air…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-06 Ruiman Zhong , André Victor Ribeiro Amaral , Paula Moraga

The Cox regression models and their Bayesian extensions are widely used for time-to-event analysis. However, standard Bayesian approaches typically require baseline hazard modeling, and their full conditional distributions lack closed-form…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-19 Shu Tamano , Yui Tomo

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient global optimization algorithm for black-box functions which are expensive to evaluate. Existing literature on model based optimization in conditional parameter spaces are usually built on…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-10-08 Xingchen Ma , Matthew B. Blaschko