相关论文: Bayesian Forecast Combination with Predictive Prio…

This paper develops forecasting methodology and application of new classes of dynamic models for time series of non-negative counts. Novel univariate models synthesise dynamic generalized linear models for binary and conditionally Poisson…

This paper introduces a novel Transformed Primal-Dual with variable-metric/preconditioner (TPDv) algorithm, designed to efficiently solve affine constrained optimization problems common in nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs).…

Uncertainty quantification using Bayesian methods is a growing area of research. Bayesian model mixing (BMM) is a recent development which combines the predictions from multiple models such that each model's best qualities are preserved in…

We study data-driven decision-making problems in the Bayesian framework, where the expectation in the Bayes risk is replaced by a risk-sensitive entropic risk measure. We focus on problems where calculating the posterior distribution is…

Forecasting techniques for assessing the power of future experiments to discriminate between theories or discover new laws of nature are of great interest in many areas of science. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian forecasting method…

Time series forecasting has become an increasingly popular research area due to its critical applications in various real-world domains such as traffic management, weather prediction, and financial analysis. Despite significant…

Variational dimensionality reduction methods are widely used for their accuracy, generative capabilities, and robustness. We introduce a unifying framework that generalizes both such as traditional and state-of-the-art methods. The…

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

One can improve predictability in the unknown domain by combining forecasts of imperfect complex computational models using a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework. In many cases, however, the models used in the mixing process are…

Forecasting in probabilistic time series is a complex endeavor that extends beyond predicting future values to also quantifying the uncertainty inherent in these predictions. Gaussian process regression stands out as a Bayesian machine…

Predicting the remaining useful life of machinery, infrastructure, or other equipment can facilitate preemptive maintenance decisions, whereby a failure is prevented through timely repair or replacement. This allows for a better decision…

Real-world time series exhibit temporally structured uncertainty: volatility clusters in turbulent regimes, dissipates in stable periods, and shifts abruptly around structural breaks. Yet many probabilistic forecasting methods estimate…

The expected growth in wind energy capacity requires efficient and accurate models for wind farm layout optimization, control, and annual energy predictions. Although analytical wake models are widely used for these applications, several…

In stochastic variational inference, the variational Bayes objective function is optimized using stochastic gradient approximation, where gradients computed on small random subsets of data are used to approximate the true gradient over the…

We introduce a multiple criteria Bayesian preference learning framework incorporating behavioral cues for decision aiding. The framework integrates pairwise comparisons, response time, and attention duration to deepen insights into…

We take a new look at the problem of disentangling the volatility and jumps processes of daily stock returns. We first provide a computational framework for the univariate stochastic volatility model with Poisson-driven jumps that offers a…

Medical time series datasets feature missing values that need data imputation methods, however, conventional machine learning models fall short due to a lack of uncertainty quantification in predictions. Among these models, the CATSI…

Recently, deep matrix factorization has been established as a powerful model for unsupervised tasks, achieving promising results, especially for multi-view clustering. However, existing methods often lack effective feature selection…

In variety testing, multi-environment trials (MET) are essential for evaluating the genotypic performance of crop plants. A persistent challenge in the statistical analysis of MET data is the estimation of variance components, which are…

Pre-trained foundation models (FMs) have shown exceptional performance in univariate time series forecasting tasks. However, several practical challenges persist, including managing intricate dependencies among features and quantifying…