相关论文: Generalisation Bounds of Zero-Shot Economic Foreca…

In this paper we introduce a Non-Stationary Fuzzy Time Series (NSFTS) method with time varying parameters adapted from the distribution of the data. In this approach, we employ Non-Stationary Fuzzy Sets, in which perturbation functions are…

Recent Transformer-based large language models (LLMs) demonstrate in-context learning ability to perform various functions based solely on the provided context, without updating model parameters. To fully utilize the in-context capabilities…

Time-series foundation models have emerged as a new paradigm for forecasting, yet their ability to effectively leverage exogenous features -- critical for electricity demand forecasting -- remains unclear. This paper empirically evaluates…

Time series forecasting is critical for decision-making across dynamic domains such as energy, finance, transportation, and cloud computing. However, real-world time series often exhibit non-stationarity, including temporal distribution…

Time series data are ubiquitous across diverse real-world applications, making time series analysis critically important. Traditional approaches are largely task-specific, offering limited functionality and poor transferability. In recent…

This research examines the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) in predicting time series, with a specific focus on the LLMTIME model. Despite the established effectiveness of LLMs in tasks such as text generation, language translation, and…

Foundation models have revolutionized artificial intelligence, setting new benchmarks in performance and enabling transformative capabilities across a wide range of vision and language tasks. However, despite the prevalence of…

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have achieved remarkable success through large-scale pretraining. However, their design primarily targets real-valued series, limiting their ability to handle general forecasting tasks involving diverse…

The recent boom of large pre-trained models witnesses remarkable success in developing foundation models (FMs) for time series forecasting. Despite impressive performance across diverse downstream forecasting tasks, existing time series FMs…

We introduce TopoPrimer, a framework that makes the global topological structure of the series population an explicit input to any forecasting model. TopoPrimer improves accuracy across diverse domains, stabilizes forecasts under seasonal…

Conventional supervised climate downscaling struggles to generalize to Global Climate Models (GCMs) due to the lack of paired training data and inherent domain gaps relative to reanalysis. Meanwhile, current zero-shot methods suffer from…

Zero-shot time-series forecasting holds great promise, but is still in its infancy, hindered by limited and biased data corpora, leakage-prone evaluation, and privacy and licensing constraints. Motivated by these challenges, we propose the…

We examine climate-related disclosures in a large sample of reports published by banks that officially endorsed the recommendations of the Task Force for Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). In doing so, we introduce a new…

Diffusion models, initially developed for image synthesis, demonstrate remarkable generative capabilities. Recently, their application has expanded to time series forecasting (TSF), yielding promising results. Existing surveys on time…

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) has long been a challenge in time series analysis. Inspired by the success of Large Language Models (LLMs), researchers are now developing Large Time Series Models (LTSMs)-universal transformer-based models…

The Model-free Prediction Principle of Politis (2015) has been successfully applied to general regression problems, as well as problems involving stationary time series. However, with long time series, e.g. annual temperature measurements…

Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts…

This study is the first to analyze the performance of a time-series foundation AI model for Value-at-Risk (VaR), which essentially forecasts the left-tail quantiles of returns. Foundation models, pre-trained on diverse datasets, can be…

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate…

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) achieve strong zero-shot forecasting through large-scale pre-training, but adapting them to downstream domains under distribution shift remains challenging. Existing solutions face a trade-off:…