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Recent claims of strong performance by Large Language Models (LLMs) on causal discovery are undermined by a key flaw: many evaluations rely on benchmarks likely included in pretraining corpora. Thus, apparent success suggests that LLM-only…

Scaling laws have allowed Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs) into the field of causal reasoning. Causal reasoning of PLM relies solely on text-based descriptions, in contrast to causal discovery which aims to determine the causal…

Causal discovery traditionally relies on statistical methods applied to observational data, often requiring large datasets and assumptions about underlying causal structures. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-16 Yuni Susanti , Michael Färber

The ability to robustly identify causal relationships is essential for autonomous decision-making and adaptation to novel scenarios. However, accurately inferring causal structure requires integrating both world knowledge and abstract…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-17 Khurram Yamin , Shantanu Gupta , Gaurav R. Ghosal , Zachary C. Lipton , Bryan Wilder

As the significance of understanding the cause-and-effect relationships among variables increases in the development of modern systems and algorithms, learning causality from observational data has become a preferred and efficient approach…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-28 Xiaoxuan Li , Yao Liu , Ruoyu Wang , Lina Yao

Recovering the structure of causal graphical models from observational data is an essential yet challenging task for causal discovery in scientific scenarios. Domain-specific causal discovery usually relies on expert validation or prior…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-08-27 Taiyu Ban , Lyuzhou Chen , Derui Lyu , Xiangyu Wang , Qinrui Zhu , Qiang Tu , Huanhuan Chen

Causal graph recovery is traditionally done using statistical estimation-based methods or based on individual's knowledge about variables of interests. They often suffer from data collection biases and limitations of individuals' knowledge.…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-06-19 Yuzhe Zhang , Yipeng Zhang , Yidong Gan , Lina Yao , Chen Wang

LLMs suffer from critical reasoning issues such as unfaithfulness, bias, and inconsistency, since they lack robust causal underpinnings and may rely on superficial correlations rather than genuine understanding. Successive LRMs have emerged…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-09-23 Zhizhang FU , Guangsheng Bao , Hongbo Zhang , Chenkai Hu , Yue Zhang

This study investigates the efficacy of Large Language Models (LLMs) in causal discovery. Using newly available open-source LLMs, OLMo and BLOOM, which provide access to their pre-training corpora, we investigate how LLMs address causal…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-10-13 Tao Feng , Lizhen Qu , Niket Tandon , Zhuang Li , Xiaoxi Kang , Gholamreza Haffari

Causal structure discovery from observations can be improved by integrating background knowledge provided by an expert to reduce the hypothesis space. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have begun to be considered as sources of prior…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-24 Victor-Alexandru Darvariu , Stephen Hailes , Mirco Musolesi

Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated impressive capabilities across a range of reasoning and generation tasks. However, research studies have shown that LLMs lack the ability to identify causal relationships, a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-21 Juncheng Dong , Yiling Liu , Ahmed Aloui , Vahid Tarokh , David Carlson

The causal capabilities of large language models (LLMs) are a matter of significant debate, with critical implications for the use of LLMs in societally impactful domains such as medicine, science, law, and policy. We conduct a "behavorial"…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-08-21 Emre Kıcıman , Robert Ness , Amit Sharma , Chenhao Tan

Large language models (LLMs) offer the potential to automate a large number of tasks that previously have not been possible to automate, including some in science. There is considerable interest in whether LLMs can automate the process of…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-12-17 Nick Huntington-Klein , Eleanor J. Murray

Causal discovery is fundamental to scientific understanding and reliable decision-making. Existing approaches face critical limitations: purely data-driven methods suffer from statistical indistinguishability and modeling assumptions, while…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-01-21 Bo Peng , Sirui Chen , Lei Xu , Chaochao Lu

Causality is essential in scientific research, enabling researchers to interpret true relationships between variables. These causal relationships are often represented by causal graphs, which are directed acyclic graphs. With the recent…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-02-19 Ivaxi Sheth , Bahare Fatemi , Mario Fritz

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in domains where causal reasoning matters, yet it remains unclear whether their judgments reflect normative causal computation, human-like shortcuts, or brittle pattern matching. We…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-03-16 Hanna M. Dettki , Charley M. Wu , Bob Rehder

The discovery of causal relationships between random variables is an important yet challenging problem that has applications across many scientific domains. Differentiable causal discovery (DCD) methods are effective in uncovering causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-29 Shiv Kampani , David Hidary , Constantijn van der Poel , Martin Ganahl , Brenda Miao

Large language models (LLMs) have shown various ability on natural language processing, including problems about causality. It is not intuitive for LLMs to command causality, since pretrained models usually work on statistical associations,…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-08-27 Chenyang Zhang , Haibo Tong , Bin Zhang , Dongyu Zhang

Recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence have driven a paradigm shift, where large language models (LLMs) with billions or trillions of parameters are trained on vast datasets, achieving unprecedented success across a series of…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-10-22 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Minqin Zhu , Yingrong Wang , Yujia Zheng , Kairong Han , Baohong Li , Guangyi Chen , Fei Wu , Kun Zhang

The ability to understand causality significantly impacts the competence of large language models (LLMs) in output explanation and counterfactual reasoning, as causality reveals the underlying data distribution. However, the lack of a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-09-30 Yu Zhou , Xingyu Wu , Beicheng Huang , Jibin Wu , Liang Feng , Kay Chen Tan
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