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Conformal Prediction (CP) serves as a robust framework that quantifies uncertainty in predictions made by Machine Learning (ML) models. Unlike traditional point predictors, CP generates statistically valid prediction regions, also known as…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-29 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

Recent advancements in Generative AI and Large Language Models (LLMs) have enabled the creation of highly realistic synthetic content, raising concerns about the potential for malicious use, such as misinformation and manipulation.…

Conformal prediction (CP) can convert any model's output into prediction sets guaranteed to include the true label with any user-specified probability. However, same as the model itself, CP is vulnerable to adversarial test examples…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-15 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Mohammad Sadegh Akhondzadeh , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2024-01-10 Matthew Cleaveland , Insup Lee , George J. Pappas , Lars Lindemann

Conformal prediction provides model-agnostic and distribution-free uncertainty quantification through prediction sets that are guaranteed to include the ground truth with any user-specified probability. Yet, conformal prediction is not…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-18 Yan Scholten , Stephan Günnemann

In the era of large language models generating high quality texts, it is a necessity to develop methods for detection of machine-generated text to avoid harmful use or simply due to annotation purposes. It is, however, also important to…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-12-18 Michal Spiegel , Dominik Macko

In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals. Recently, Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-19 Yahav Cohen , Jacob Goldberger , Tom Tirer

Successful application of machine learning models to real-world prediction problems, e.g. financial forecasting and personalized medicine, has proved to be challenging, because such settings require limiting and quantifying the uncertainty…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-09-15 Yao Zhang , William Zame , Mihaela van der Schaar

With the rapid progress of large language models (LLMs) and the huge amount of text they generated, it becomes more and more impractical to manually distinguish whether a text is machine-generated. Given the growing use of LLMs in social…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-06-12 Jinyan Su , Terry Yue Zhuo , Di Wang , Preslav Nakov

Nowadays, powerful large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have demonstrated revolutionary power in a variety of tasks. Consequently, the detection of machine-generated texts (MGTs) is becoming increasingly crucial as LLMs become more…

密码学与安全 · 计算机科学 2024-01-17 Xinlei He , Xinyue Shen , Zeyuan Chen , Michael Backes , Yang Zhang

Large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT have exhibited remarkable performance in generating human-like texts. However, machine-generated texts (MGTs) may carry critical risks, such as plagiarism issues, misleading information, or…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-03-01 Shuhai Zhang , Yiliao Song , Jiahao Yang , Yuanqing Li , Bo Han , Mingkui Tan

Large language models (LLMs) have grown more powerful in language generation, producing fluent text and even imitating personal style. Yet, this ability also heightens the risk of identity impersonation. To the best of our knowledge, no…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-05-01 Lang Gao , Xuhui Li , Chenxi Wang , Mingzhe Li , Wei Liu , Zirui Song , Jinghui Zhang , Rui Yan , Preslav Nakov , Xiuying Chen

The rampant proliferation of large language models, fluent enough to generate text indistinguishable from human-written language, gives unprecedented importance to the detection of machine-generated text. This work is motivated by an…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-10-10 Xiao Pu , Jingyu Zhang , Xiaochuang Han , Yulia Tsvetkov , Tianxing He

Conformal Prediction (CP) has recently received a tremendous amount of interest, leading to a wide range of new theoretical and methodological results for predictive inference with formal theoretical guarantees. However, the vast majority…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-08-22 Manit Paul , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

We propose Bayesian Conformal Prediction (BCP), a framework that combines Bayesian posterior predictive distributions with PAC-style conformal risk control to produce prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Standard…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Fanyi Wu , Veronika Lohmanova , Samuel Kaski , Michele Caprio

This study introduces a significance testing-enhanced conformal prediction (CP) framework to improve trustworthiness of large language models (LLMs) in multiple-choice question answering (MCQA). While LLMs have been increasingly deployed in…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-08-15 Yuanchang Ye

The widespread adoption of ChatGPT has raised concerns about its misuse, highlighting the need for robust detection of AI-generated text. Current word-level detectors are vulnerable to paraphrasing or simple prompts (PSP), suffer from…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-09-24 Mo Mu , Dianqiao Lei , Chang Li

Continual Learning (CL) is essential for enabling self-evolving large language models (LLMs) to adapt and remain effective amid rapid knowledge growth. Yet, despite its importance, little attention has been given to establishing statistical…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-29 Xiaofan Zhou , Lu Cheng

Text generative models (TGMs) excel in producing text that matches the style of human language reasonably well. Such TGMs can be misused by adversaries, e.g., by automatically generating fake news and fake product reviews that can look…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2020-11-04 Ganesh Jawahar , Muhammad Abdul-Mageed , Laks V. S. Lakshmanan

Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-08-01 Subhankar Ghosh , Yuanjie Shi , Taha Belkhouja , Yan Yan , Jana Doppa , Brian Jones