相关论文: Windows of opportunity in subseasonal weather regi…

Predictions on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales--ranging from two weeks to two month--are crucial for early warning systems but remain challenging owing to chaos in the climate system. Teleconnections, such as the stratospheric…

Weather and climate forecasting is vital for sectors such as agriculture and disaster management. Although numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have advanced, forecasting at the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) scale, spanning 2 to 6…

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) focuses on predicting key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation in the 2-week to 2-month time scales. Skillful SSF would have immense societal value, in areas such as agricultural…

It is largely agreed that subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability arises from the atmospheric initial state during early lead times and from the land and ocean during intermediate and late lead times. We test this hypothesis for the…

Seasonal climate forecasts are commonly based on model runs from fully coupled forecasting systems that use Earth system models to represent interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, land and other Earth-system components. Recently,…

Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…

The seamless forecast approach of subseasonal to seasonal scale variability has been succeeding in the forecast of multiple meteorological scales in a uniform framework. In this paradigm, it is hypothesized that reduction in initial error…

Sub-seasonal wind speed forecasts provide valuable guidance for wind power system planning and operations, yet the forecast skills of surface winds decrease sharply after two weeks. However, large-scale variables exhibit greater…

Sub-seasonal climate forecasting (SSF) is the prediction of key climate variables such as temperature and precipitation on the 2-week to 2-month time horizon. Skillful SSF would have substantial societal value in areas such as agricultural…

The Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an influential climate phenomenon that plays a vital role in modulating global weather patterns. In spite of the improvement in MJO predictions made by machine learning algorithms, such as neural…

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical atmospheric variability on intraseasonal timescales, and reliable MJO predictions are essential for protecting lives and mitigating impacts on societal assets. However,…

Weather regimes are recurrent and persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that modulate the occurrence of local impact variables such as extreme precipitation. In their capacity as mediators between long-range…

Timely alerts about hazardous air pollutants are crucial for public health. However, existing forecasting models often overlook key factors like baseline parameters and missing data, limiting their accuracy. This study introduces a hybrid…

We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global…

Understanding and predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is fundamental for precipitation forecasting and disaster prevention. To date, long-term and accurate MJO prediction has remained a challenge for researchers. Conventional MJO…

Reliable forecasts of quasi-stationary, recurrent, and persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (weather regimes) are crucial for various socio-economic sectors. Despite steady progress, probabilistic weather regime…

Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the…

We present an ensemble prediction system using a Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) model that recursively predicts key atmospheric variables with six-hour time resolution. This model uses convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on a…

Regional machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) models based on graph neural networks have recently demonstrated remarkable predictive accuracy, outperforming numerical weather prediction models at lower computational costs. In…

Sub-seasonal weather forecasts are becoming increasingly important for a range of socio-economic activities. However, the predictive ability of physical weather models is very limited on these time scales. We propose several post-processing…