相关论文: Modelling the Spatially Varying Non-Linear Effects…

In this study, we introduce a novel and comprehensive extension of a Bayesian spatio-temporal disease mapping model that explicitly accounts for gender-specific effects of meteorological exposures. Leveraging fine-scale weekly mortality and…

Switzerland experienced one of the warmest summers during 2022. Extreme heat has been linked to increased mortality. Monitoring the mortality burden attributable to extreme heat is crucial to inform policies, such as heat warnings, and…

The impact of hot weather on health outcomes of a population is mediated by a variety of factors, including its age profile and local green infrastructure. The combination of warming due to climate change and demographic aging suggests that…

This study investigates how different spatiotemporal temperature models affect the estimation of heat-related mortality in Lazio, Italy (2008--2022). First, we compare three methods to reconstruct daily maximum temperature at the…

Background: Extreme heat is a major public health risk, yet its relationship with mortality may be confounded or modified by air pollution and social determinants. Objectives: We aimed to quantify the effects of extreme maximum temperatures…

Using fine-grained, publicly available data, this paper studies the short-term association between environmental factors, i.e., weather and air pollution characteristics, and weekly mortality rates in small geographical regions in Europe.…

In epidemiological studies of air pollution and public health, estimating the health impact of exposure to air pollution may be hindered by the unknown functional form of the exposure-outcome association and by unmeasured confounding…

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of ambient ozone levels and temperatures which, in turn, may impact public health. Much research has focused on the effect of short-term ozone exposures on mortality and morbidity while…

Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…

Accurate forecasts of weekly mortality are essential for public health and the insurance industry. We develop a forecasting framework that extends the Lee-Carter model with age- and region-specific seasonal effects and penalized distributed…

Excess mortality, i.e. the difference between expected and observed mortality, is used to quantify the death toll of mortality shocks, such as infectious disease-related epidemics and pandemics. However, predictions of expected mortality…

We develop a unified statistical framework for attributing heatwaves as spatio-temporal phenomena under climate change. We quantify the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the probability and persistence of heatwaves not captured by standard…

Reliable mortality estimates at the subnational level are essential in the study of health inequalities within a country. One of the difficulties in producing such estimates is the presence of small populations, where the stochastic…

Heatwaves are intensifying as a major climate extreme and have emerged as a growing public health threat in rapidly urbanizing regions such as India. In this study, we integrate long-term heat-related mortality records (1970-2023) with…

Epidemiological investigations of regionally aggregated spatial data often involve detecting spatial health disparities among neighboring regions on a map of disease mortality or incidence rates. Analyzing such data introduces spatial…

Heat waves resulting from prolonged extreme temperatures pose a significant risk to human health globally. Given the limitations of observations of extreme temperature, climate models are often used to characterize extreme temperature…

Compositional regression models with a real-valued response variable can generally be specified as log-contrast models subject to a zero-sum constraint on the model coefficients. This formulation emphasises the relative information conveyed…

This paper extends Bayesian mortality projection models for multiple populations considering the stochastic structure and the effect of spatial autocorrelation among the observations. We explain high levels of overdispersion according to…

Segregation has long been recognized as a driver of environmental inequalities, with disadvantaged groups often living in neighborhoods where heat-related risks are highest. Yet, it remains unclear how daily mobility patterns, embedded…

Heat exposure connects the built environment and public health, directly shaping the livability and sustainability of urban areas. Understanding the spatial heterogeneity of heat exposure and its drivers is vital for climate-adaptive urban…