相关论文: There are no Champions in Supervised Long-Term Tim…

Deep Learning has been successfully applied to many application domains, yet its advantages have been slow to emerge for time series forecasting. For example, in the well-known Makridakis (M) Competitions, hybrids of traditional statistical…

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge…

Robotic manipulation policies often degrade over extended horizons, yet existing benchmarks provide limited insight into why such failures occur. Most prior benchmarks are either simulation-based or report aggregate success, making it…

Comparison with a human is an essential requirement for a benchmark for it to be a reliable measurement of model capabilities. Nevertheless, the methods for model comparison could have a fundamental flaw - the arithmetic mean of separate…

Transformer-based models for time series forecasting (TSF) have attracted significant attention in recent years due to their effectiveness and versatility. However, these models often require extensive hyperparameter optimization (HPO) to…

In this paper we survey the most recent advances in supervised machine learning and high-dimensional models for time series forecasting. We consider both linear and nonlinear alternatives. Among the linear methods we pay special attention…

Transformers have demonstrated impressive strength in long-term series forecasting. Existing prediction research mostly focused on mapping past short sub-series (lookback window) to future series (forecast window). The longer training…

Large language models (LLMs) have been introduced to time series forecasting (TSF) to incorporate contextual knowledge beyond numerical signals. However, existing studies question whether LLMs provide genuine benefits, often reporting…

Time-series forecasting has seen significant advancements with the introduction of token prediction mechanisms such as multi-head attention. However, these methods often struggle to achieve the same performance as in language modeling,…

Long-term time-series forecasting (LTTF) has become a pressing demand in many applications, such as wind power supply planning. Transformer models have been adopted to deliver high prediction capacity because of the high computational…

Methods for neural network hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling are computationally expensive due to the need to train a large number of model configurations. In this paper, we show that standard frequentist regression models can…

Despite the recent progress in hyperparameter optimization (HPO), available benchmarks that resemble real-world scenarios consist of a few and very large problem instances that are expensive to solve. This blocks researchers and…

For a number of years since its introduction to hydrology, recurrent neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM) have proven remarkably difficult to surpass in terms of daily hydrograph metrics on known, comparable benchmarks.…

Forecasts of future events are essential inputs into informed decision-making. Machine learning (ML) systems have the potential to deliver forecasts at scale, but there is no framework for evaluating the accuracy of ML systems on a…

Forecasting is a challenging task that offers a clearly measurable way to study AI systems. Forecasting requires a large amount of research on the internet, and evaluations require time for events to happen, making the development of…

Hyper-parameters (HPs) are an important part of machine learning (ML) model development and can greatly influence performance. This paper studies their behavior for three algorithms: Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), Random Forest (RF), and…

Time series forecasting has received wide interest from existing research due to its broad applications and inherent challenging. The research challenge lies in identifying effective patterns in historical series and applying them to future…

Traffic time series forecasting is challenging due to complex spatio-temporal dynamics time series from different locations often have distinct patterns; and for the same time series, patterns may vary across time, where, for example, there…

Multi-horizon price forecasting is central to portfolio allocation, risk management, and algorithmic trading, yet deep learning architectures have proliferated faster than rigorous financial benchmarks can evaluate them. This study provides…

Systems are commonly monitored for health and security through collection and streaming of multivariate time series. Advances in time series forecasting due to adoption of multilayer recurrent neural network architectures make it possible…