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Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) often suffer from limited inferential efficiency in estimating treatment effects due to their small sample sizes. In recent years, incorporating external controls (ECs) has gained increasing attention as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-16 Qinwei Yang , Jingyi Li , Peng Wu , Shu Yang

This paper addresses the covariate shift problem in the context of nonparametric regression within reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHSs). Covariate shift arises in supervised learning when the input distributions of the training and…

We consider the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) when both randomized control trial (RCT) data and external real-world data (RWD) are available. We decompose the ATE estimand as the difference between a pooled-ATE…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-22 Mark van der Laan , Sky Qiu , Jens Magelund Tarp , Lars van der Laan

Existing statistical learning guarantees for general kernel regressors often yield loose bounds when used with finite-rank kernels. Yet, finite-rank kernels naturally appear in several machine learning problems, e.g.\ when fine-tuning a…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-04 Tin Sum Cheng , Aurelien Lucchi , Ivan Dokmanić , Anastasis Kratsios , David Belius

This paper focuses on generalization performance analysis for distributed algorithms in the framework of learning theory. Taking distributed kernel ridge regression (DKRR) for example, we succeed in deriving its optimal learning rates in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-03-30 Shao-Bo Lin , Di Wang , Ding-Xuan Zhou

Analyzing data from multiple sources offers valuable opportunities to improve the estimation efficiency of causal estimands. However, this analysis also poses many challenges due to population heterogeneity and data privacy constraints.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-23 Rong Zhao , Jason Falvey , Xu Shi , Vernon M. Chinchilli , Chixiang Chen

This paper provides a link between causal inference and machine learning techniques - specifically, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) - in observational studies where the receipt of the treatment is not randomized, but the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-05-23 Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi , Giorgio Gnecco

To test scientific theories and develop individualized treatment rules, researchers often wish to learn heterogeneous treatment effects that can be consistently found across diverse populations and contexts. We consider the problem of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-01 Yi Zhang , Melody Huang , Kosuke Imai

Generalizing causal knowledge across diverse environments is challenging, especially when estimates from large-scale datasets must be applied to smaller or systematically different contexts, where external validity is critical. Model-based…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-12-19 Seyda Betul Aydin , Holger Brandt

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data is a crucial task across many fields, helping policy and decision-makers take better actions. There has been recent progress on robust and efficient methods for estimating…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-09 Miruna Oprescu , Jacob Dorn , Marah Ghoummaid , Andrew Jesson , Nathan Kallus , Uri Shalit

Experiments that use covariate adaptive randomization (CAR) are commonplace in applied economics and other fields. In such experiments, the experimenter first stratifies the sample according to observed baseline covariates and then assigns…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-05-16 Ahnaf Rafi

In this paper, we extend the transfer learning classification framework from regression function-based methods to decision rules. We propose a novel methodology for modeling posterior drift through Bayes decision rules. By exploiting the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-08-29 Xiaohan Wang , Yang Ning

When a source-trained model $Q$ is replaced by a model $\tilde{Q}$ trained on shifted data, its performance on the source domain can change unpredictably. To address this, we study the two-model risk change, $\Delta R := R_P(\tilde{Q}) -…

Transfer learning is beneficial for survival analysis, especially when the target study has a limited number of events. However, existing transfer learning methods rely on the restrictive assumption that the target and source studies share…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-13 Yu Gu , Donglin Zeng , D. Y. Lin

Transfer learning uses a data model, trained to make predictions or inferences on data from one population, to make reliable predictions or inferences on data from another population. Most existing transfer learning approaches are based on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-12-01 Jimmy Hickey , Jonathan P. Williams , Emily C. Hector

The growing demand for personalized decision-making has led to a surge of interest in estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). Various types of CATE estimators have been developed with advancements in machine learning and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-04 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Siyi Wang , Yijun Li , Qi Wu

Randomized clinical trials are the gold standard for analyzing treatment effects, but high costs and ethical concerns can limit recruitment, potentially leading to invalid inferences. Incorporating external trial data with similar…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-09 Yujia Gu , Hanzhong Liu , Wei Ma

Datasets from field experiments with covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) usually contain extra covariates in addition to the strata indicators. We propose to incorporate these additional covariates via auxiliary regressions in the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2022-09-07 Liang Jiang , Peter C. B. Phillips , Yubo Tao , Yichong Zhang

We consider estimation of the target population average treatment effect (TATE) when outcome information is unavailable. Instead, we observe the outcome in multiple source populations and wish to combine the treatment effects therein to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-05-16 Zehao Su , Helene Charlotte Rytgaard , Henrik Ravn , Frank Eriksson

Kernel ridge regression (KRR) is a widely used nonparametric method due to its strong theoretical guarantees and computational convenience. However, standard KRR does not distinguish between linear and nonlinear components in the signal,…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-05-13 Xin Bing , Chao Wang