相关论文: Deep Ensembles Secretly Perform Empirical Bayes

Bayesian neural networks allow us to keep track of uncertainties, for example in top tagging, by learning a tagger output together with an error band. We illustrate the main features of Bayesian versions of established deep-learning…

One of the fundamental challenges in the prediction of dynamic agents is robustness. Usually, most predictions are deterministic estimates of future states which are over-confident and prone to error. Recently, few works have addressed…

In this paper, we employ variational arguments to establish a connection between ensemble methods for Neural Networks and Bayesian inference. We consider an ensemble-based scheme where each model/particle corresponds to a perturbation of…

In resource-constrained and low-latency settings, uncertainty estimates must be efficiently obtained. Deep Ensembles provide robust epistemic uncertainty (EU) but require training multiple full-size models. BatchEnsemble aims to deliver…

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques…

In this work, we demonstrate the Empirical Bayes approach to learning a Dynamic Bayesian Network. By starting with several point estimates of structure and weights, we can use a data-driven prior to subsequently obtain a model to quantify…

Deep neural networks are powerful predictors for a variety of tasks. However, they do not capture uncertainty directly. Using neural network ensembles to quantify uncertainty is competitive with approaches based on Bayesian neural networks…

In this work, we propose a novel prior learning method for advancing generalization and uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks. The key idea is to exploit scalable and structured posteriors of neural networks as informative priors…

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Combining Bayesian nonparametrics and a forward model selection strategy, we construct parsimonious Bayesian deep networks (PBDNs) that infer capacity-regularized network architectures from the data and require neither cross-validation nor…

This paper addresses the need for deep learning models to integrate well-defined constraints into their outputs, driven by their application in surrogate models, learning with limited data and partial information, and scenarios requiring…

Comparing competing mathematical models of complex natural processes is a shared goal among many branches of science. The Bayesian probabilistic framework offers a principled way to perform model comparison and extract useful metrics for…

The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

Existing methods for estimating uncertainty in deep learning tend to require multiple forward passes, making them unsuitable for applications where computational resources are limited. To solve this, we perform probabilistic reasoning over…

There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained…

Artificial Neural Networks are connectionist systems that perform a given task by learning on examples without having prior knowledge about the task. This is done by finding an optimal point estimate for the weights in every node.…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) generalize remarkably well without explicit regularization even in the strongly over-parametrized regime where classical learning theory would instead predict that they would severely overfit. While many…

The remarkable performance of overparameterized deep neural networks (DNNs) must arise from an interplay between network architecture, training algorithms, and structure in the data. To disentangle these three components, we apply a…

The widespread use of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) has recently resulted in their application to challenging scientific visualization tasks. While advanced DNNs demonstrate impressive generalization abilities, understanding factors like…