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Non-linear hierarchical models are commonly used in many disciplines. However, inference in the presence of non-nested effects and on large datasets is challenging and computationally burdensome. This paper provides two contributions to…

A major limitation of machine learning (ML) prediction models is that they recover associational, rather than causal, predictive relationships between variables. In high-stakes automation applications of ML this is problematic, as the model…

Predictive mean matching (PMM) is a popular imputation strategy that imputes missing values by borrowing observed values from other cases with similar expectations. We show that, unlike other imputation strategies, PMM is not guaranteed to…

In black-box large language model (LLM) services, response reliability is often only partially observable at decision time, while stronger inference pathways incur substantial computational cost, inducing a budgeted sequential decision…

Models with Conditional Moment Restrictions (CMRs) are popular in economics. These models involve finite and infinite dimensional parameters. The infinite dimensional components include conditional expectations, conditional choice…

Variational approaches based on neural networks are showing promise for estimating mutual information (MI) between high dimensional variables. However, they can be difficult to use in practice due to poorly understood bias/variance…

Reasoning based on causality, instead of association has been considered as a key ingredient towards real machine intelligence. However, it is a challenging task to infer causal relationship/structure among variables. In recent years, an…

Variable importance (VI) methods are often used for hypothesis generation, feature selection, and scientific validation. In the standard VI pipeline, an analyst estimates VI for a single predictive model with only the observed features.…

Explaining the decision process of machine learning algorithms is nowadays crucial for both model's performance enhancement and human comprehension. This can be achieved by assessing the variable importance of single variables, even for…

The Support Vector Machine (SVM) of Vapnik (1998) has become widely established as one of the leading approaches to pattern recognition and machine learning. It expresses predictions in terms of a linear combination of kernel functions…

Machine learning models often generalize poorly to out-of-distribution (OOD) data as a result of relying on features that are spuriously correlated with the label during training. Recently, the technique of Invariant Risk Minimization (IRM)…

Learning models that can handle distribution shifts is a key challenge in domain generalization. Invariance learning, an approach that focuses on identifying features invariant across environments, improves model generalization by capturing…

Transformer models have become increasingly popular in financial applications, yet their potential risk making and biases remain under-explored. The purpose of this work is to audit the reliance of the model on volatile data for…

When studying the association between treatment and a clinical outcome, a parametric multivariable model of the conditional outcome expectation is often used to adjust for covariates. The treatment coefficient of the outcome model targets a…

Evaluating machine learning models is crucial not only for determining their technical accuracy but also for assessing their potential societal implications. While the potential for low-sample-size bias in algorithms is well known, we…

We provide an information-theoretic framework for studying the generalization properties of machine learning algorithms. Our framework ties together existing approaches, including uniform convergence bounds and recent methods for adaptive…

Multivariable Mendelian randomization (MVMR) uses genetic variants as instrumental variables to infer the direct effects of multiple exposures on an outcome. However, unlike univariable Mendelian randomization, MVMR often faces greater…

Interpretable machine learning has gained much attention recently. Briefness and comprehensiveness are necessary in order to provide a large amount of information concisely when explaining a black-box decision system. However, existing…

Models in the supervised learning framework may capture rich and complex representations over the features that are hard for humans to interpret. Existing methods to explain such models are often specific to architectures and data where the…

Reliable estimation of treatment effects from observational data is important in many disciplines such as medicine. However, estimation is challenging when unconfoundedness as a standard assumption in the causal inference literature is…