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In this paper, we link two existing approaches to derive counterfactuals: adaptations based on a causal graph, and optimal transport. We extend "Knothe's rearrangement" and "triangular transport" to probabilistic graphical models, and use…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-04-29 Agathe Fernandes Machado , Arthur Charpentier , Ewen Gallic

Counterfactual frameworks have grown popular in machine learning for both explaining algorithmic decisions but also defining individual notions of fairness, more intuitive than typical group fairness conditions. However, state-of-the-art…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-01-09 Lucas de Lara , Alberto González-Sanz , Nicholas Asher , Laurent Risser , Jean-Michel Loubes

The theory of optimal transportation has developed into a powerful and elegant framework for comparing probability distributions, with wide-ranging applications in all areas of science. The fundamental idea of analyzing probabilities by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-03-14 Florian F Gunsilius

We address the open question of counterfactual identification for high-dimensional multivariate outcomes from observational data. Pearl (2000) argues that counterfactuals must be identifiable (i.e., recoverable from the observed data…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-25 Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Ainkaran Santhirasekaram , Ben Glocker

We consider the problem of learning a counterfactually fair regressor. We adopt a causal uncertainty view in which counterfactual fairness is defined with resampled noise. We focus on obtaining theoretical fairness guarantees for a new…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-28 M. Generali Lince , S. Gaucher , J-J. Vie , P. Loiseau

Group counterfactual explanations find a set of counterfactual instances to explain a group of input instances contrastively. However, existing methods either (i) optimize counterfactuals only for a fixed group and do not generalize to new…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-29 Enrique Valero-Leal , Bernd Bischl , Pedro Larrañaga , Concha Bielza , Giuseppe Casalicchio

We propose a nonlinear difference-in-differences method to estimate multivariate counterfactual distributions in classical treatment and control study designs with observational data. Our approach sheds a new light on existing approaches…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-11 William Torous , Florian Gunsilius , Philippe Rigollet

Causal discovery in the presence of missing data introduces a chicken-and-egg dilemma. While the goal is to recover the true causal structure, robust imputation requires considering the dependencies or, preferably, causal relations among…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-06-04 Vy Vo , He Zhao , Trung Le , Edwin V. Bonilla , Dinh Phung

Counterfactuals -- expressing what might have been true under different circumstances -- have been widely applied in statistics and machine learning to help understand causal relationships. More recently, counterfactuals have begun to…

人机交互 · 计算机科学 2024-04-08 Arran Zeyu Wang , David Borland , David Gotz

Counterfactual inference is a powerful tool, capable of solving challenging problems in high-profile sectors. To perform counterfactual inference, one requires knowledge of the underlying causal mechanisms. However, causal mechanisms cannot…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-01-23 Athanasios Vlontzos , Bernhard Kainz , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Distributionally robust optimization tackles out-of-sample issues like overfitting and distribution shifts by adopting an adversarial approach over a range of possible data distributions, known as the ambiguity set. To balance conservatism…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-02 Ahmad-Reza Ehyaei , Golnoosh Farnadi , Samira Samadi

Coupling probability measures lies at the core of many problems in statistics and machine learning, from domain adaptation to transfer learning and causal inference. Yet, even when restricted to deterministic transports, such couplings are…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-22 Lucas De Lara , Luca Ganassali

We address the problem of integrating data from multiple, possibly biased, observational and interventional studies, to eventually compute counterfactuals in structural causal models. We start from the case of a single observational dataset…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-01 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas , David Huber

To study discrimination in automated decision-making systems, scholars have proposed several definitions of fairness, each expressing a different fair ideal. These definitions require practitioners to make complex decisions regarding which…

计算机与社会 · 计算机科学 2021-02-23 Kweku Kwegyir-Aggrey , Rebecca Santorella , Sarah M. Brown

Counterfactual explanations (CE) are the de facto method for providing insights into black-box decision-making models by identifying alternative inputs that lead to different outcomes. However, existing CE approaches, including group and…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-03-13 Lei You , Lele Cao , Mattias Nilsson , Bo Zhao , Lei Lei

Many problems ask a question that can be formulated as a causal question: "what would have happened if...?" For example, "would the person have had surgery if he or she had been Black?" To address this kind of questions, calculating an…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-01-20 Arthur Charpentier , Emmanuel Flachaire , Ewen Gallic

We propose sequential transport (ST), a distributional framework for mediation analysis that combines optimal transport (OT) with a mediator directed acyclic graph (DAG). Instead of relying on cross-world counterfactual assumptions, ST…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-24 Agathe Fernandes Machado , Iryna Voitsitska , Arthur Charpentier , Ewen Gallic

We consider the problem of learning fair decision systems in complex scenarios in which a sensitive attribute might affect the decision along both fair and unfair pathways. We introduce a causal approach to disregard effects along unfair…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-02-23 Silvia Chiappa , Thomas P. S. Gillam

Fairness of classification and regression has received much attention recently and various, partially non-compatible, criteria have been proposed. The fairness criteria can be enforced for a given classifier or, alternatively, the data can…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-11-18 Drago Plečko , Nicolai Meinshausen

Many causal and structural parameters in economics can be identified and estimated by computing the value of an optimization program over all distributions consistent with the model and the data. Existing tools apply when the data is…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-07-31 Andrei Voronin
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