相关论文: A Novel Multiple Interval Prediction Method for El…

This paper introduces an innovative interval prediction methodology aimed at addressing the limitations of current evaluation indicators while enhancing prediction accuracy and reliability. To achieve this, new evaluation metrics are…

Accurate prediction of electricity prices plays an essential role in the electricity market. To reflect the uncertainty of electricity prices, price intervals are predicted. This paper proposes a novel prediction interval construction…

The operation and planning of large-scale power systems are becoming more challenging with the increasing penetration of stochastic renewable generation. In order to minimize the decision risks in power systems with large amount of…

Continuous intraday electricity markets play an increasingly important role in short-term trading and balancing, yet decision-making under rapidly evolving price dynamics remains challenging. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework…

To address the intermittency of renewable energy source (RES) generation, scenario forecasting offers a series of stochastic realizations for predictive objects with superior flexibility and direct views. Based on a long time-series…

Efforts to predict stock market outcomes have yielded limited success due to the inherently stochastic nature of the market, influenced by numerous unpredictable factors. Many existing prediction approaches focus on single-point…

Accurate forecasting is one of the fundamental focus in the literature of econometric time-series. Often practitioners and policy makers want to predict outcomes of an entire time horizon in the future instead of just a single $k$-step…

The design and operation of modern energy systems are heavily influenced by time-dependent and uncertain parameters, e.g., renewable electricity generation, load-demand, and electricity prices. These are typically represented by a set of…

Accurate capacity prediction is essential for the safe and reliable operation of batteries by anticipating potential failures beforehand. The performance of state-of-the-art capacity prediction methods is significantly hindered by the…

Prediction intervals are a machine- and human-interpretable way to represent predictive uncertainty in a regression analysis. In this paper, we present a method for generating prediction intervals along with point estimates from an ensemble…

The increasing interest in demand-side management (DSM) as part of the energy cost optimization calls for effective methods to determine representative electricity prices for energy optimization and scheduling investigations. We propose a…

This work presents a new methodology to obtain probabilistic interval predictions of a dynamical system. The proposed strategy uses stored past system measurements to estimate the future evolution of the system. The method relies on the use…

This paper proposes a modified conditional generative adversarial network (cGAN) model to generate net load scenarios for power systems that are statistically credible, conditioned by given labels (e.g., seasons), and, at the same time,…

The Cloud paradigm is at a critical point in which the existing energy-efficiency techniques are reaching a plateau, while the computing resources demand at Data Center facilities continues to increase exponentially. The main challenge in…

For discrete-valued time series, predictive inference cannot be implemented through the construction of prediction intervals to some predetermined coverage level, as this is the case for real-valued time series. To address this problem, we…

Engineering design tasks often require synthesizing new designs that meet desired performance requirements. The conventional design process, which requires iterative optimization and performance evaluation, is slow and dependent on initial…

The recent decade has seen an enormous rise in the popularity of deep learning and neural networks. These algorithms have broken many previous records and achieved remarkable results. Their outstanding performance has significantly sped up…

Time series forecasting is one of the challenging problems for humankind. Traditional forecasting methods using mean regression models have severe shortcomings in reflecting real-world fluctuations. While new probabilistic methods rush to…

The machine learning literature contains several constructions for prediction intervals that are intuitively reasonable but ultimately ad-hoc in that they do not come with provable performance guarantees. We present methods from the…

The integration of renewable energy into electricity markets poses significant challenges to price stability and increases the complexity of market operations. Accurate and reliable electricity price forecasting is crucial for effective…