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We introduce CAMulator version 1, an auto-regressive machine-learned (ML) emulator of the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) that simulates the next atmospheric state given the prescribed sea surface temperatures and incoming solar…

Extreme weather events epitomize high cost: to society through their physical impacts, and to computer servers that simulate them to assess risk and advance physical understanding. It costs hundreds of simulation years to sample a few…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-04-14 Justin Finkel , Paul A. O'Gorman

Numerical simulations of Earth's weather and climate require substantial amounts of computation. This has led to a growing interest in replacing subroutines that explicitly compute physical processes with approximate machine learning (ML)…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-11-30 Salva Rühling Cachay , Venkatesh Ramesh , Jason N. S. Cole , Howard Barker , David Rolnick

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2023-04-25 Seth Bassetti , Brian Hutchinson , Claudia Tebaldi , Ben Kravitz

Accurately quantifying the increased risks of climate extremes requires generating large ensembles of climate realization across a wide range of emissions scenarios, which is computationally challenging for conventional Earth System Models.…

计算物理 · 物理学 2025-08-22 Mengze Wang , Benedikt Barthel Sorensen , Themistoklis Sapsis

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2024-09-19 Seth Bassetti , Brian Hutchinson , Claudia Tebaldi , Ben Kravitz

Physics-based climate projections using general circulation models are essential for assessing future risks, but their coarse resolution limits regional decision-making. Statistical downscaling can efficiently add detail, yet many methods…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-05-13 Takuro Kutsuna , Noriko N. Ishizaki , Norihiro Oyama , Hiroaki Yoshida

Reduced precision floating point arithmetic is now routinely deployed in numerical weather forecasting over short timescales. However the applicability of these reduced precision techniques to longer timescale climate simulations -…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2023-05-17 Tom Kimpson , E. Adam Paxton , Matthew Chantry , Tim Palmer

Numerical climate model simulations run at high spatial and temporal resolutions generate massive quantities of data. As our computing capabilities continue to increase, storing all of the data is not sustainable, and thus it is important…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-02-20 Joseph Guinness , Dorit Hammerling

Physics-based atmosphere-land models with prescribed sea surface temperature have notable successes but also biases in their ability to represent atmospheric variability compared to observations. Recently, AI emulators and hybrid models…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2026-04-22 Ian Baxter , Hamid Pahlavan , Pedram Hassanzadeh , Katharine Rucker , Tiffany Shaw

With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent,…

Data-driven convective parameterization aims to accurately represent convective adjustments to large-scale forcings in a computationally economic manner. While previous studies have demonstrated success using various model architectures,…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-06-02 Qiyu Song , Zhiming Kuang

Regional climate models (RCMs) are essential tools for simulating and studying regional climate variability and change. However, their high computational cost limits the production of comprehensive ensembles of regional climate projections…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2023-11-08 Jorge Bano-Medina , Maialen Iturbide , Jesus Fernandez , Jose Manuel Gutierrez

One of the most used metrics to gauge the effects of climate change is the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the long-term (equilibrium) temperature increase resulting from instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO$_2$. Since…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2021-02-04 Robbin Bastiaansen , Henk A. Dijkstra , Anna S. von der Heydt

To analyze climate change mitigation strategies, economists rely on simplified climate models - climate emulators. We propose a generic and transparent calibration and evaluation strategy for these climate emulators that is based on Coupled…

综合经济学 · 经济学 2022-06-10 Doris Folini , Felix Kübler , Aleksandra Malova , Simon Scheidegger

Climate change is causing the intensification of rainfall extremes. Precipitation projections with high spatial resolution are important for society to prepare for these changes, e.g. to model flooding impacts. Physics-based simulations for…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2022-11-30 Henry Addison , Elizabeth Kendon , Suman Ravuri , Laurence Aitchison , Peter AG Watson

Robust generalization under climate change remains a major challenge for machine learning applications in climate science. Most existing approaches struggle to extrapolate beyond the climate they were trained on, leading to a strong…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-09-03 Shuchang Liu , Paul A. O'Gorman

Computational modeling of a complex system is limited by the parts of the system with the least information. While detailed models and high-resolution data may be available for parts of a system, abstract relationships are often necessary…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-19 Kara Bocan , Natasa Miskov-Zivanov

Climate change is one of the most critical challenges that our planet is facing today. Rising global temperatures are already bringing noticeable changes to Earth's weather and climate patterns with an increased frequency of unpredictable…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2024-01-19 Karandeep Singh , Chaeyoon Jeong , Naufal Shidqi , Sungwon Park , Arjun Nellikkattil , Elke Zeller , Meeyoung Cha