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Airfoil icing is a severe safety hazard in aviation and causes power losses on wind turbines. The precise shape of the ice formation is subject to large uncertainties, so uncertainty quantification (UQ) is needed for a reliable prediction…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2023-07-21 Jakob Dürrwächter , Andrea Beck , Claus-Dieter Munz

Machine learning algorithms have shown promise in reducing bias in wind gust predictions, while still underpredicting high gusts. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) supports this issue by identifying when predictions are reliable or need…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-02 Israt Jahan , John S. Schreck , David John Gagne , Charlie Becker , Marina Astitha

How to accurately quantify the uncertainty of stochastic dynamical responses affected by uncertain loads and structural parameters is an important issue in structural safety and reliability analysis. In this paper, the conditional…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2025-01-03 Feng Wu , Yuelin Zhao , Li Zhu

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential in probabilistic machine learning models, particularly for assessing the reliability of predictions. In this paper, we present a systematic framework for estimating both epistemic and aleatoric…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-09-11 Marzieh Ajirak , Anand Ravishankar , Petar M. Djuric

On top of machine learning models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) functions as an essential layer of safety assurance that could lead to more principled decision making by enabling sound risk assessment and management. The safety and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-28 Venkat Nemani , Luca Biggio , Xun Huan , Zhen Hu , Olga Fink , Anh Tran , Yan Wang , Xiaoge Zhang , Chao Hu

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of systematically determining and characterizing the degree of confidence in computational model predictions. In the context of systems biology, especially with dynamic models, UQ is crucial…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-10-29 Alberto Portela , Julio R. Banga , Marcos Matabuena

This paper provides a comparative study of modern uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods. To greatly enhance real-time performance, both differential algebra (DA) and a directional differential algebra (DDA) approach are employed. This can…

系统与控制 · 电气工程与系统科学 2026-05-26 Ethan R. Burnett , Spencer Boone

The calibration of rheological parameters in the modeling of complex flows of non-Newtonian fluids can be a daunting task. In this paper we demonstrate how the framework of Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) can be used to improve the…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2023-07-11 Aricia Rinkens , Clemens V. Verhoosel , Nick O. Jaensson

The practice of uncertainty quantification (UQ) validation, notably in machine learning for the physico-chemical sciences, rests on several graphical methods (scattering plots, calibration curves, reliability diagrams and confidence curves)…

化学物理 · 物理学 2023-03-31 Pascal Pernot

Deep learning is gaining increasing popularity for spatiotemporal forecasting. However, prior works have mostly focused on point estimates without quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. In high stakes domains, being able to…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2021-06-15 Dongxia Wu , Liyao Gao , Xinyue Xiong , Matteo Chinazzi , Alessandro Vespignani , Yi-An Ma , Rose Yu

Most uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches provide a single scalar value as a measure of model reliability. However, different uncertainty measures could provide complementary information on the prediction confidence. Even measures…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for Large Language Models (LLMs) encompass a variety of approaches, with two major types being particularly prominent: information-based, which focus on model confidence expressed as token…

Sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) are used to assess and improve engineering models. In this study, various methods of SA and UQ are described and applied in theoretical and practical examples for use in energy…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-07-07 Majdi I. Radaideh , Mohammad I. Radaideh

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques are frequently used to ascertain output variability in systems with parametric uncertainty. Traditional algorithms for UQ are either system-agnostic and slow (such as Monte Carlo) or fast with…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-03-19 Tuhin Sahai , Jose Miguel Pasini

In the last few decades, uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods have been used widely to ensure the robustness of engineering designs. This chapter aims to detail recent advances in popular uncertainty quantification methods used in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-11-08 Dinesh Kumar , Farid Ahmed , Shoaib Usman , Ayodeji Alajo , Syed Alam

The advent of fabrication techniques like additive manufacturing has focused attention on the considerable variability of material response due to defects and other micro-structural aspects. This variability motivates the development of an…

应用物理 · 物理学 2018-02-06 F. Rizzi , R. E. Jones , J. A. Templeton , J. T. Ostien , B. L. Boyce

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a key discipline for computational modeling of complex systems, enhancing reliability of engineering simulations. In crashworthiness, having an accurate assessment of the behavior of the model uncertainty…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-09-17 Marc Rocas , Alberto García-González , Sergio Zlotnik , Xabier Larráyoz , Pedro Díez

Quantifying uncertainty of machine learning model predictions is essential for reliable decision-making, especially in safety-critical applications. Recently, uncertainty quantification (UQ) theory has advanced significantly, building on a…

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has increasing importance in building robust high-performance and generalizable materials property prediction models. It can also be used in active learning to train better models by focusing on getting new…

材料科学 · 物理学 2022-11-14 Daniel Varivoda , Rongzhi Dong , Sadman Sadeed Omee , Jianjun Hu

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley
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