相关论文: Improved Forecasts of Global Extreme Marine Heatwa…

This work focuses on the end-to-end forecast of global extreme marine heatwaves (MHWs), which are unusually warm sea surface temperature events with profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Accurate prediction of extreme MHWs has significant…

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), an extreme climate phenomenon, pose significant challenges to marine ecosystems and industries, with their frequency and intensity increasing due to climate change. This study introduces an integrated deep learning…

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme ocean-temperature events with significant impacts on marine ecosystems and related industries. Accurate forecasts (one to six months ahead) of MHWs would aid in mitigating these impacts. However,…

Heat waves are projected to increase in frequency and severity with global warming. Improved warning systems would help reduce the associated loss of lives, wildfires, power disruptions, and reduction in crop yields. In this work, we…

Understanding extreme events and their probability is key for the study of climate change impacts, risk assessment, adaptation, and the protection of living beings. Forecasting the occurrence probability of extreme heatwaves is a primary…

Because of the impact of extreme heat waves and heat domes on society and biodiversity, their study is a key challenge. We specifically study long-lasting extreme heat waves, which are among the most important for climate impacts. Physics…

We introduce a new methodology to study marine heat waves, extreme events in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the global ocean. Motivated by previously large and impactful marine heat waves and by theoretical expectation that the…

Extreme heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States. Furthermore, it is increasing in intensity, frequency, and duration, making skillful forecasts vital to protecting life and property. Traditional numerical weather…

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) threaten marine ecosystems and significantly impact weather patterns. In the Arabian Sea, summer MHWs are of particular concern due to their potential impacts on the Indian summer monsoon, a lifeline for nearly a…

Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…

Operational ocean forecasting systems conventionally employ dynamical ocean models driven by atmospheric forcing derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning…

This paper provides some foundations for valid forecasting of rare and extreme heat waves through a better understanding of the similarities and differences between several consecutive hot days under normal circumstances and rare, extreme…

Hurricane track forecasting remains a significant challenge due to the complex interactions between the atmosphere, land, and ocean. Although AI-based numerical weather prediction models, such as Google Graphcast operation, have…

The forecast accuracy of machine learning (ML) weather prediction models is improving rapidly, leading many to speak of a "second revolution in weather forecasting". With numerous methods being developed and limited physical guarantees…

Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable. We reformulate wind…

Heatwaves (HWs) are extreme atmospheric events that produce significant societal and environmental impacts. Predicting these extreme events remains challenging, as their complex interactions with large-scale atmospheric and climatic…

Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional…

Significant wave height is one of the most important parameters characterizing ocean waves, and accurate numerical ocean wave forecasting is crucial for coastal protection and shipping. However, due to the randomness and nonlinearity of the…

We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global…

In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…