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Trial engagement effects are effects of trial participation on the outcome that are not mediated by treatment assignment. Most work on extending (generalizing or transporting) causal inferences from a randomized trial to a target population…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-23 Lawson Ung , Tyler J. VanderWeele , Issa J. Dahabreh

A growing statistical literature focuses on causal inference in the context of experiments where the target of inference is the average treatment effect in a finite population and random assignment determines which subjects are allocated to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-04 Jonas M. Mikhaeil , Donald P. Green

The estimation of individual treatment effects (ITE) focuses on predicting the outcome changes that result from a change in treatment. A fundamental challenge in observational data is that while we need to infer outcome differences under…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-23 Zichuan Lin , Xiaokai Huang , Jiate Liu , Yuxuan Han , Jia Chen , Xiapeng Wu , Deheng Ye

Negative affect is a proxy for mental health in adults. By being able to predict participants' negative affect states unobtrusively, researchers and clinicians will be better positioned to deliver targeted, just-in-time mental health…

We consider clinical trials in which an experimental treatment is compared with a control in pre-specified patient subpopulations. In such settings, adaptive enrichment designs allow the enrolled population to be modified at an interim…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-17 Enyu Li , Nigel Stallard , Ekkehard Glimm , Dominic Magirr , Peter K. Kimani

Outcome Reporting Bias (ORB) poses significant threats to the validity of meta-analytic findings. It occurs when researchers selectively report outcomes based on the significance or direction of results, potentially leading to distorted…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-17 Alessandra Gaia Saracini , Leonhard Held

Comparing outcomes across treatments is essential in medicine and public policy. To do so, researchers typically estimate a set of parameters, possibly counterfactual, with each targeting a different treatment. Treatment-specific means are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-07 Alec McClean , Yiting Li , Sunjae Bae , Mara A. McAdams-DeMarco , Iván Díaz , Wenbo Wu

In clinical settings, we often face the challenge of building prediction models based on small observational data sets. For example, such a data set might be from a medical center in a multi-center study. Differences between centers might…

Sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding under incremental propensity score interventions remains relatively underdeveloped. Incremental interventions define stochastic treatment regimes by multiplying the odds of treatment, offering…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-27 Shuying Shen , Valerio Bacak , Edward H. Kennedy

Propensity scores are commonly used to reduce the confounding bias in non-randomized observational studies for estimating the average treatment effect. An important assumption underlying this approach is that all confounders that are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-02 Youfei Yu , Jiacong Du , Min Zhang , Zhenke Wu , Andrew M. Ryan , Bhramar Mukherjee

Many researchers have applied classical statistical decision theory to evaluate treatment choices and learn optimal policies. However, because this framework is based solely on realized outcomes under chosen decisions and ignores…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-10-21 Benedikt Koch , Kosuke Imai

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-09-27 Kolyan Ray , Botond Szabo

Adversarial attack perturbs an image with an imperceptible noise, leading to incorrect model prediction. Recently, a few works showed inherent bias associated with such attack (robustness bias), where certain subgroups in a dataset (e.g.…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2022-05-06 Gaurav Kumar Nayak , Ruchit Rawal , Rohit Lal , Himanshu Patil , Anirban Chakraborty

In this chapter, we review the class of causal effects based on incremental propensity scores interventions proposed by Kennedy [2019]. The aim of incremental propensity score interventions is to estimate the effect of increasing or…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-10-22 Matteo Bonvini , Alec McClean , Zach Branson , Edward H. Kennedy

In clinical trials, principal stratification analysis is commonly employed to address the issue of truncation by death, where a subject dies before the outcome can be measured. However, in practice, many survivor outcomes may remain…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-08 Wei Li , Yuan Liu , Shanshan Luo , Zhi Geng

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-05 Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

While standard meta-analysis pools the results from randomized trials that compare two treatments, network meta-analysis aggregates the results of randomized trials comparing a wider variety of treatment options. However, it is unclear…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-08-15 Mireille E. Schnitzer , Russell J. Steele , Michèle Bally , Ian Shrier

We develop a statistical model for the testing of disease prevalence in a population. The model assumes a binary test result, positive or negative, but allows for biases in sample selection and both type I (false positive) and type II…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-12-28 Lucas Böttcher , Maria R. D'Orsogna , Tom Chou

Inverse propensity weighting (IPW) is a popular method for estimating treatment effects from observational data. However, its correctness relies on the untestable (and frequently implausible) assumption that all confounders have been…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-08-04 Jacob Dorn , Kevin Guo

We consider the problem of extrapolating treatment effects across heterogeneous populations (``sites"/``contexts"). We consider an idealized scenario in which the researcher observes cross-sectional data for a large number of units across…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-10-03 Konrad Menzel