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Transformer-based architectures achieved high performance in natural language processing and computer vision, yet many studies have shown that they have not demonstrated a clear advantage in time series forecasting and even underperform…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-26 Zida Liang , Jiayi Zhu , Weiqiang Sun

Time series forecasting (TSF) remains a challenging and largely unsolved problem in machine learning, despite significant recent efforts leveraging Large Language Models (LLMs), which predominantly rely on Transformer architectures.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-14 Yufa Zhou , Yixiao Wang , Surbhi Goel , Anru R. Zhang

The Transformer is a highly successful deep learning model that has revolutionised the world of artificial neural networks, first in natural language processing and later in computer vision. This model is based on the attention mechanism…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-05-09 Riccardo Ughi , Eugenio Lomurno , Matteo Matteucci

Recurrent Neural Networks were, until recently, one of the best ways to capture the timely dependencies in sequences. However, with the introduction of the Transformer, it has been proven that an architecture with only attention-mechanisms…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-08-19 Radostin Cholakov , Todor Kolev

Transformers have shown great power in time series forecasting due to their global-range modeling ability. However, their performance can degenerate terribly on non-stationary real-world data in which the joint distribution changes over…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-27 Yong Liu , Haixu Wu , Jianmin Wang , Mingsheng Long

Time series forecasting is a key component in many industrial and business decision processes and recurrent neural network (RNN) based models have achieved impressive progress on various time series forecasting tasks. However, most of the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-01-26 Zekai Chen , Jiaze E , Xiao Zhang , Hao Sheng , Xiuzheng Cheng

Transformer-based models have recently become dominant in Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), yet the variations in their architecture, such as encoder-only, encoder-decoder, and decoder-only designs, raise a crucial question: What…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-18 Lefei Shen , Mouxiang Chen , Han Fu , Xiaoxue Ren , Xiaoyun Joy Wang , Jianling Sun , Zhuo Li , Chenghao Liu

Recently, there has been a surge of Transformer-based solutions for the long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) task. Despite the growing performance over the past few years, we question the validity of this line of research in this work.…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2022-08-18 Ailing Zeng , Muxi Chen , Lei Zhang , Qiang Xu

Time series forecasting is widely used in the fields of equipment life cycle forecasting, weather forecasting, traffic flow forecasting, and other fields. Recently, some scholars have tried to apply Transformer to time series forecasting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-24 Benhan Li , Shengdong Du , Tianrui Li

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is used to predict the target variables at a future time point based on the learning from previous time points. To keep the problem tractable, learning methods use data from a fixed length window in the past as…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-04-26 Jimeng Shi , Mahek Jain , Giri Narasimhan

The emergence of deep learning has yielded noteworthy advancements in time series forecasting (TSF). Transformer architectures, in particular, have witnessed broad utilization and adoption in TSF tasks. Transformers have proven to be the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-11-01 Liyilei Su , Xumin Zuo , Rui Li , Xin Wang , Heng Zhao , Bingding Huang

Time series forecasting is essential for many practical applications, with the adoption of transformer-based models on the rise due to their impressive performance in NLP and CV. Transformers' key feature, the attention mechanism,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-09 PeiSong Niu , Tian Zhou , Xue Wang , Liang Sun , Rong Jin

The pursuit of computational efficiency has driven the adoption of low-precision formats for training transformer models. However, this progress is often hindered by notorious training instabilities. This paper provides the first…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-21 Haiquan Qiu , Quanming Yao

Transformer-based architectures achieved breakthrough performance in natural language processing and computer vision, yet they remain inferior to simpler linear baselines in multivariate long-term forecasting. To better understand this…

Since its introduction, the transformer has shifted the development trajectory away from traditional models (e.g., RNN, MLP) in time series forecasting, which is attributed to its ability to capture global dependencies within temporal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-07 Xiwen Chen , Peijie Qiu , Wenhui Zhu , Huayu Li , Hao Wang , Aristeidis Sotiras , Yalin Wang , Abolfazl Razi

Time series forecasting is an important problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. In this paper, we propose to tackle such forecasting problem with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-01-06 Shiyang Li , Xiaoyong Jin , Yao Xuan , Xiyou Zhou , Wenhu Chen , Yu-Xiang Wang , Xifeng Yan

Understanding the fundamental mechanism behind the success of transformer networks is still an open problem in the deep learning literature. Although their remarkable performance has been mostly attributed to the self-attention mechanism,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-11-23 Tolga Ergen , Behnam Neyshabur , Harsh Mehta

Recent innovations in transformers have shown their superior performance in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV). The ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions in sequential data has also triggered a…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2025-03-24 Chu Myaet Thwal , Ye Lin Tun , Kitae Kim , Seong-Bae Park , Choong Seon Hong

The rapid progress seen in terms of large-scale generative AI is largely based on the attention mechanism. It is conversely non-trivial to conceive small-scale applications for which attention-based architectures outperform traditional…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-07 Claudius Gros

In recent years, numerous Transformer-based models have been applied to long-term time-series forecasting (LTSF) tasks. However, recent studies with linear models have questioned their effectiveness, demonstrating that simple linear layers…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-08-20 Jiaheng Yin , Zhengxin Shi , Jianshen Zhang , Xiaomin Lin , Yulin Huang , Yongzhi Qi , Wei Qi
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